Baseball has begun

If you’re not a baseball fan, you might not have noticed that pitchers and catchers have reported.  In fact, entire teams have now reported and are already playing games.  It’s awesome.  I listened to part of a game on the radio last Friday.  Even though the games don’t count, the rhythm of well-announced baseball is exquisitely soothing.

Moreover, spring has sprung early in Ohio.  I attended a baseball game[1] between ODU (Ohio Dominican University) and OWU last Saturday.[2] The weather was beautiful, the players were not wearing turtlenecks, etc.  It was the earliest I have ever seen a baseball game live north of Florida.  It was so much fun, with such warm and baseball-friendly weather, that the coaches decided to play another 18-inning game on Sunday.  I went to that too.

Over the winter I collected a few trivia questions (and answers).  I don’t like true trivia, as in trivial details.  I like bigger questions, questions you can think about, instead of either knowing or not knowing.  An example of the latter is:  who is the last player to steal home twice in a single game.  It’s an absurd question.  Who could possibly know that it was Vic Power, a first baseman not exactly notorious for his speed.  He totaled 45 steals in a 12-year, 1627-game career.

A better question, to my way of thinking, is:  name the players who had 10 or more seasons with the same team in which they hit at least 30 home runs and had at least 100 RBIs.[3]   This is a question that can be played with even if you don’t know the answer.  You would think about great hitters, hitters that played for the same team for a long time, hitters who likely are among the best the game has ever seen.  If you tried, you might come up with:  Babe Ruth (12 seasons), Lou Gehrig, Henry Aaron, Albert Pujols, and David Ortiz (all with 10).  That’s a pretty impressive list, spanning three generations of baseball greats.

More trivial trivia:  did you know that four players have hit for the cycle three times in their careers.  First, a player hits for the “cycle” when he has a single, double, triple, and home run in the same game.  It has happened almost 300 times, roughly twice a year since professional baseball began in 1870s.  John Reilly (in the 1880s), Bob Meusel (in the 1920s), Babe Herman (in the 1930s), and Adrian Beltre, who is still active, are the only players to hit for the cycle three times.

I’ll end with one last question:  name the three pitchers who have 100 wins, 100 saves, and 50 complete games.  Two of them are in the Hall of Fame and are well known for converting from starting pitchers to relief pitching.  You could figure them out, given a little time.  The third is impossible to guess and you might not have heard of him, though his last season pitching was relatively recent, 1984.  The first two are Dennis Eckersley and John Smoltz.  The third pitcher is somewhat similar, in that he began starter before moving to the bullpen.  But he hadn’t nearly the star power and he wasn’t nearly as good.

Eck and Smoltzie cleared most of the hurdles rather easily, our third pitcher eked his way over.  Eck has 197 wins, Smoltz had 213, RR had 146.  Eck has 390 saves, Smolt had 154 (all in just four seasons), RR had 103.  Eck had 100 complete games, Smolt had 53, and RR had 55.  The cut-offs make it appear that RR is in the same league with Eckersley and Smoltz.  And he was (literally), they all played in both the American and National Leagues.  But figuratively, there is a large gap between the two hall of famers and Ron Reed.

Similarly, there is a very large gap between an ODU vs. OWU baseball game and the major league baseball games that I will be watching all summer.  But baseball is baseball and this time of year, you take what you can get.  Expect me to write much more about baseball in the months to come.

 

[1]   The game was 18 innings long, that way it only counts as one game for each team.  Division II baseball teams can play a limited number of scrimmages.  By the way, the teams did not keep score, making it a little bit like a tee ball game.

[2]   The Dominicans are Catholic and the Wesleyans are Protestants, continuing a religious rivalry that goes back centuries.

[3]   Please never say “RsBI.”  It’s stupid.  It’s beyond stupid.  It’s way over the outfield fence on stupid.  One of the talking heads on ESPN started doing it years ago because he figured out that it’s “runs batted in,” apparently assuming he was the first person to make that wondrous discovery.  “RBI” is an initialism, which is pluralized by adding an “s.”  The same applies to POWs.  Nobody would ever say “PsOW,” even though we all know that when there is more than one, the term is “prisoners of war,” not “prisoner of wars” (which would be exceedingly unfortunate).  Initialisms are words and they are pronounced by stating each letter, making them quite distinct from acronymns (think FBI vs. NATO).

More baseball: the Cubs

If you are a sports fan and you pay attention to baseball, you are no doubt aware of how highly the media regard the 2016 Cubs.  They are number one in the MLB Network’s power rankings.  They are number one in the ESPN power rankings.  Basically every baseball analyst considers them the best team in baseball.  And it’s a fun uplifting story because the Cubs haven’t won a World Series since 1908.

Maybe they are the best team.  They have given up the fewest runs of any team, only 3.4 per game compared to a league average of 4.5 runs per game.  They have scored the third most runs, 5.0 per game – only the Red Sox and the Rockies have scored more.  Their run differential is massive, on average they score 1.6 more per game than their opponent.  That’s over half a run better than the second best team, the Red Sox.  The Cubs are the only team in the majors (so far) to win 90 games.  They are a whopping 40 games over .500.

I can’t help saying – but * * *.

The Cubs record includes 64 wins against teams under .500.  That’s 64 wins, not games played.  The Cubs have more wins against sub-.500 teams, than the three teams leading divisions in the AL have played against them.  The Cubs have played 92 games against sub-.500 teams, Texas has played 55, Boston 56, and Cleveland 62.

The Cubs winning percentage against good teams (defined, by me, as teams over .500) is .529; against bad teams, their winning percentage is .696.  That does not indicate to me that they are the juggernaut the national press has made them out to be.

As if feeding my frenzy, CSNChicago recently reported “The Cubs responded to their worst month (12-14 in July) with their best month (22-6 in August) * * *.”  http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/cubs-will-keep-their-foot-gas-pedal-chance-clinch-st-louis  These records are accurate, though it is doubtful that the Cubs play in August was in “response” to their play in July.  It was in response to  their competition.

As Don Imus used to say, “you can’t make this stuff up.”  In July, when the Cubs didn’t play well, going 12-14, they played 12 games against good teams and 14 against bad teams.  Hmmn.  Notice a relationship?  In August, when they played well, going 22-6, the Cubs played 7 games against good teams and 21 against bad teams.  I think we’re on to something – the Cubs are really good when they play bad teams, not so good when they play good teams.  Don’t expect anybody touting the Cubs to mention this.

I’m not saying the Cubs aren’t good.  They are.  But they aren’t as good as they appear, and they aren’t nearly as good when playing good teams as they are when playing bad teams.

In the playoffs, they won’t be playing teams with sub-.500 records.  They better bring their “A” game.  Their “B” game might be good enough to beat the Phillies and Reds.  It is unlikely to do so well against the Dodgers, Mets, and whichever team prevails in the American League.

MLB Scheduling and the Wild Card

Major league baseball is in its home stretch.  Each team plays 162 games over six months, and we are down to the last 20 or so games.  The season is long enough and routine enough for players and fans to develop a rhythm, distracted by the occasional day game or double-header and by long trips east or west.

Scheduling used to be simple.  For decades, each team played the other seven teams in its league 22 times for a total of 154 games.  The winner of the National League (first game played in 1876) played the winner of the American League (first game played in 1901) in the World Series (first played in 1903).  Because every team in a league played the same schedule, no team (or its fans) could argue that it played a tougher schedule than some other team.

That changed in 1969, when the leagues divided into divisions, started playing unbalanced schedules, and created a playoff format.  (Previously, playoff games were played only when two or more teams in a league were tied at the end of the regular season.)  It changed more when inter-league games were incorporated into the schedule.

Teams now play the other four teams in their division 19 times each season, a total of 76 division games, 46.9% of their schedule.  The other major sports in the U.S. play significantly fewer division games — in the NFL, 6/16 (37.5%); in the NHL, 30/82 (36.6%); in the NBA, 16/82 (19.5%).  An unbalanced schedule is a great way to determine which team is the best in a division.  It is a terrible way to determine which teams should qualify for a wild card berth in the playoffs because it is inherently inequitable.

The teams in each division of baseball play the same schedule, therefore the fact that they play each other disproportionately does not influence which of them wins the division.  But the wild card berths are based on overall record without considering strength of schedule.  This approach benefits teams that play more games against weaker competition.

The following chart helps illustrate the issue:

American League Games over .500
East 33
Central -2
West 3
National League
East -16
Central 7
West -25

 

These numbers, through games played on September 10, 2016, are even worse than they appear on first glance.  Each division, by definition, plays .500 against teams in that division.  That means that the numbers above are based solely on games against teams from other divisions and have, therefore, been compiled in only half the games played (because roughly half of games are played within a division).  The American League East is 33 games over .500 against teams outside the American League East.  The National League West is 25 games under .500.  (This discrepancy is exacerbated by the fact that in inter-league games this season the AL East teams played NL West teams.)

 

This disparity can have significant wild card implications.  The San Francisco Giants are the first wild card team in the NL, a game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals.  The New York Mets are only half a game behind the Cardinals.  The Cards are handicapped (compared to the Giants and Mets) by playing half their games against the best division the NL – because the Giants and Mets have played half of their games in the two worst divisions in the majors.  Although each win is worth the same, the competition is markedly different.  It isn’t fair, in this case, to the Cardinals, who are battling two teams with decidedly easier schedules.  The same applies in the AL, where the Detroit Tigers benefit from playing in the weak Central division, while most of their wild card competition beats up on itself in the East, easily the best division in baseball.

In the old days (sometimes called “the good old days”) the team with the most wins in a league made the World Series.  And they deserved to, having compiled the best record against the same teams that every other team played.  Now because there are levels of playoffs, the best team (however we might determine that) does not always make the World Series.  Moreover, given the huge differences in strength of schedule, it’s not certain that the best teams even make the playoffs.

A little Cincinnati Reds history

It is commonly believed that the Cincinnati Reds are the oldest professional baseball team.  And it is true that the Cincinnati Red Stockings were the first openly entirely professional team and that they had a spectacular 65-0 record in 1869.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincinnati_Red_Stockings  Because they were not playing other professional teams, that record means little.  That it happened in 1869, long before anyone currently alive was born, makes it mean a little less.  That parts of the game were wildly different (for instance, the batter could request a high or low pitch that was thrown underhand) takes it down another notch.  Still 65-0 is pretty darn good.

When the National League started playing games in 1876, the Cincinnati Reds franchise, as we know it, was not among the league’s teams.  There was a Cincinnati Reds team.  But that team played its last game in 1880 and was subsequently expelled from the league because its owner wanted to sell beer at games and play games on Sundays.  (It was a different time.)  The 1876 team was almost as bad at the 1869 team had been good, winning only 9 of the 65 games it played.  (Baseball-reference.com is the source of much of the information in this post and much entertainment.   I encourage you to wander into its voluminous records some day and check out your favorite team or player.)

Trivia – two original National League franchises have been in the league continuously since it started in 1876.  Name them.

The worst year in Cincinnati baseball history was 1881, when the city had to endure without a professional team.  The Red Stocking were formed in 1882 and played in the American Association.  Thus, for their first eight years, the new Reds were a minor league team.  They joined the majors, which at that time was solely the National League, and changed their name to the Reds in 1890.

The last old Reds team (1880), had one hall of famer:  Deacon White, who was inducted in 2013, almost 113 years after he played his last game.  Deacon was a bit of a maverick, despite earning his nickname based on his manners.  He was likely the first catcher to stand directly behind the plate, he helped design the first chest protector, and he was devoutly against the reserve clause, stating “No man can sell my carcass unless I get at least half.”  See The Biographical History of Baseball, Donald Dewey and Nicholas Acocella.

Deacon’s brother Will was the best pitcher for the 1880 (old) Reds, where they formed one of the first brother/brother batteries in professional baseball history.   Will was also the best pitcher for the 1882 (new) Reds when professional baseball returned to the Queen City.  In 1880, Will pitched in 62 of the team’s 83 games.  He completed 58 of them.  (It was a different time.)  The team used exactly two pitchers that year.  Blondie Purcell pitched 21 complete games and finished the four games that the Deacon couldn’t.  In 1982, Will started 54 games, completing 52.  Harry McCormick started 25 games and completed 24.  Outfielder Harry Wheeler finished the three games the starters could not complete.  (It was a different time.)

To further accentuate the difference, the 1880 and 1882 teams combined to hit 12 total home runs, an average of six per year.  As of today, the 15 teams in the American League are averaging over seven home runs each per week.  Deacon White had a maximum salary in his career of $3,500.  Bid McPhee, a hall of famer who played for the 1882 team, earned $2,300 in the only year for which that information is available.  His salary exceeded the salary cap of $2,000 based on a side agreement.

For a little context, the average blacksmith in 1880 earned $800 per year, based on a wage of $15.54 per 60-hour work week.  The average carpenter earned about $50 more per year.  See https://outrunchange.com/2012/06/14/typical-wages-in-1860-through-1890/ for information on old-time salaries.  The best ball players were making three to five times as much as an average worker.  Baseball’s minimum salary today ($507,500) is almost 10 times the median income for a family of four ($54,462).  Many baseball players make more than $10 million per year, which is over 180 times the median income for a family of four.

Trivia Answer – Chicago Cubs(continuously in Chicago) and Atlanta Braves (who started in Boston, moved to Milwaukee, and then were the first modern team to migrate east, to Atlanta.)

The Reds currently play in Great American Ballpark, in my opinion the best corporate name for a ballpark.  It also hearkens back to the 1880’s.  The new Reds played in American Park (because they were in the American Association) before changing the name to League Park, when they moved to the National League, and ultimately to Crosley Field, after Powel Crosley Jr. purchased the franchise in 1934.  As far as I can tell, no sponsorship money was involved in the name changes.  As I said before, it was a different time.

Wild Card Games

The wild card games are completed.  The Astros shut out the Yankees and the Cubs shut out the Pirates.  The Yankees and Pirates can both affirmatively state that they made the postseason, however brief the experience.  The Astros and Cubs can both state that they won a playoff game and little else.  It is almost a mockery of the concept to pretend that these are playoff games.  It’s akin to believing that the eight teams in the so-called first round of the NCAA basketball tournament have played tournament games.  Everybody (except NCAA executives) knows that they are play-in games, not tournament games.  So it is with the wild card games.

And let’s not pretend that the games prove anything, other than who get to play in the divisional series.  One baseball game is the approximate equivalent of six minutes of an NFL football game.  (The 16-game NFL season is one tenth of a 162-game MLB season, meaning that one NFL game equals roughly 10 MLB games, meaning that one tenth on an NFL game, six minutes, equals one MLB game.)  It is a travesty to let the equivalent of six minutes of a football game decide anything.  Can you imagine the uproar if the NFL added a new round of playoffs and told the teams they would play six minutes to determine which of them would advance to the next playoff game.  People would laugh.  But that is what the MLB does.  That is the what Bud Selig’s playoff expansion has wrought.

Even the five games of the divisional series approximate only one half of a football game.  I say “approximate” because not every series goes five games, some end after only three.   Even five games aren’t enough to determine which team is better, just which team won three games first.  And ditto a seven games series and winning four games.  The original World Series concept of playing a nine game series was best.  But we abandoned that over a century ago.

The easiest way to address the problem is to discard the ill-conceived system of having two wild card teams in each league.  There was nothing wrong with the original wild card system which had treated baseball well since 1969.  Only four teams should make the playoffs and each series should be best of seven games.  To attempt to avoid paying games in cold weather, travel days should be eliminated except between series, which would also place more emphasis on depth of starting pitching, not just quality.  The wild card team should be the team with the best record that doesn’t win an artificially created division (more on that in a subsequent post).  To avoid the silliness of a one game playoff of two or more tied teams, MLB should create a  tie-break system.  Every youth baseball tournament in the country has one, so it shouldn’t be that hard to find a reasonable concept that would reward something that was earned over a 162-game period (for instance, fewest runs allowed) rather than reward the team whose (one fifth of its) starting rotation has a better day.

Still and all, congratulations to the Astros and Cubs and I wish them well as they advance.  By the way, how did two National League teams win the two wild card games?  Oh, right, another questionable Bud Selig decision.  As with many of his decisions, this one benefited the Brewers.  (More on that in a later post.)

I’m looking forward to the divisional series.  May the best teams win.  But if they do, it will be fortuitous, not by design.