Selling Kidneys

Sometime in the early 1990s, I wrote a paper for a law school class titled If Not You, To Whom Does Your Body Belong. In the nature of most law school papers, it was adequate to the task at hand without being insightful or in any way useful.[1] But it raised a real issue that has continued to vex me: why do we have so many people on a waiting list for organ donation, when the free market is readily available to fill the supply. (Technical answer – because the 1984 National Organ Transplant Act outlaws the sale of human organs.)[2]

The New York Times stated in 1998, that in 1993 “roughly half of the 138,000 people who needed hearts, lungs, livers, kidneys and pancreases were listed for transplant, and fewer than one quarter of those received organs.” Half of the people in need of a transplant weren’t even on the transplant list in large part because patients without adequate insurance often are not even informed that a transplant is an option.

Forbes discussed the issue in a March 11, 1996 column, claiming that over 3,000 Americans died in 1995 while awaiting an organ. They stated “The basic problem is this: The government monopoly that runs the transplant market is terribly bad at creating supply to satisfy the demand.”

A proposal to allow prisoners on death row to avoid execution by donating organs was described as far-fetched and cockamamie.[3] Yet the imbalance between supply and demand was killing people. In 1997, 2,000 people died while waiting for a kidney transplant.[4] Both papers (from which these facts are taken) essentially blamed organs donors – saying (rightly) that we need more, but without addressing the elephant in the surgical ward, which is that everyone in the system benefits materially, except the indispensable donor. The surgeon gets paid and paid extremely well. The hospital gets paid and paid extremely well.[5] The organ recipient gets a new lease on life. The organ donor gets our appreciative thanks. It clearly isn’t enough.

According to the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, 114,429 people are currently awaiting an organ transplant. Many of those potential transplants would save a life, all would improve a life. Thus far this year, 21,042 transplants have been performed based on donations from 10,120 donors.[6]

The reason I wrote the paper in the first place was because of a law in Florida that presumed consent to a donation of corneas whenever a person died in an automobile accident. “Presumed consent” is pretty sketchy ethically,[7] though it is a straightforward way to address the supply problem, at least for corneas in Florida.

Other, less confiscatory, solutions have been suggested. Pennsylvania proposed granting $300 stipends to donors to help pay for their (eventual) funeral expenses. Even that tepid plan met with editorial criticism, though in fairness, some of the criticism was because $300 was unlikely to induce anyone to donate.[8] A few years later,[9] the theoretical ante had been upped to $2,000 but was derided as “ethically objectionable and of dubious effectiveness” by Mark Fox, the director of transplant ethics and policy at the University of Rochester.

Another potential solution is termed “paired kidney donation.”[10] This scheme pairs a person who would like to donate to a relative but is incompatible with a compatible person who would like to donate to their own relative. It’s complicated, might run afoul of the National Transplant Act (because agreeing to a quid pro quo might be “valuable consideration”), and continues to rely on donations. In the meantime, according to the author, every year 8% of the patients on a transplant list either die or become too sick to remain on the list.

While we are prohibiting the free market from working its invisible-hand magic, people (mostly hospitals and insurance companies) are paying more for annual dialysis treatment than a kidney operation costs. According to Michele Goodwin, a law school professor, Medicaid paid $60,000 to $90,000 per annual dialysis treatment in 2006 compared to $70,000 or so for a kidney transplant.[11] Her plan was to unleash federalism and let states determine whether to allow their residents to buy and sell organs.

One country already allows its citizens to buy and sell kidneys. Not surprisingly, if you believe that supply and demand equalize when they are allowed to, that country has no waiting list and a price per kidney of approximately $5,000. What is surprising is that the country with no waiting list is not a member of the enlightened West; it is Iran. https://www.statnews.com/2016/08/25/organ-donation-kidneys-iran/ There is legitimate criticism that allowing the sale of organs might impose undue burdens on the poor – who can be imprisoned in Iran for failure to pay debt. But at a minimum, a legal market, with whatever flaws are endemic to it, is better than allowing a black market to expand.

Our country has advocates of a free market solution. J.H. Huebert, wrote in 2007 that “Congress could end the shortage [of organs for transplant] right now by repealing the ban on organ sales. Until it does, it will have the blood on its hands of those 6,000 people who die each year.[12] See also https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/12/12/to-save-lives-allow-individuals-to-sell-their-organs/#13b190ae5627

Count me among the Americans who believe we should embrace a free market for the sale of kidneys – as a test case. Safeguards could be built in to the system, which already has substantial constrictions based on health and safety. Ethical considerations have delayed an obvious solution for too long and to me are of little moment compared to substantially enhancing the lives of the 93,000 Americans currently awaiting a kidney transplant,[13] while the other 300,000,000 of us walk around with a kidney to spare.

[1] The egomaniacal William Evelyn “Bill” McNeal, portrayed hilariously by Phil Harman on NewsRadio, once received a review that described him as “adequate.” For the rest of the episode, he raved about his adequatulance and his adequasivity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOxpuKXhlss

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Organ_Transplant_Act_of_1984

[3] Toledo Blade editorial on March 23, 1998, quoting an unnamed “assistant professor of surgery at Washington University School of Medicine.”

[4] Mark D. Somerson, Columbus Dispatch, October 18, 1998.

[5] A liver transplant cost $250,000 at the time according to a New York Times May 5, 1998 column.

[6] https://optn.transplant.hrsa.gov/

[7]https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/media/releases/presumed_consent_not_answer_to_solving_organ_shortage_in_us_researchers_say.

[8] Dayton Daily News, May 24, 1999.

[9] Nicholas Kristof column in New York Times that I didn’t date. It was in a folder between articles dated May 24, 1999 and March 27, 2006.

[10] Forbes, March 27, 2006 column by Robert A. Montgomery, the Chief of Transplantation at Johns Hopkins University.

[11] Forbes, October 15, 2007. The transplant patient would also need roughly $5,000 of annual maintenance medicine.

[12] Columbus Dispatch, June 13, 2007.

[13] http://lkdn.org/kidney_tx_waiting_list.html

The Four is a great book

 

I recently read The Four, subtitled The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google by Scott Galloway.  I heartily recommend it.  It is informative, engaging, and at times humorous.  The author is a professor at NYU, who founded Red Envelope and continues to work at L2, a digital strategy company that he also founded.  Galloway is a noted crank, who delights in tweaking the powers behind various technology behemoths.  He has an irreverent youtube video that predicts where Amazon will locate its second headquarters that is worth watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3baKe4B3eyI

Instead of doing a straight review of the book, I’m going to highlight some of the factoids that struck my fancy.  The book is full of them and various other insights that will reward your reading.

52% of US household have Amazon Prime.

Stores in high end malls have average sales of $800/s.f., which is a 57% increase from 2005.  Stores at B and C grade malls have average sales of $374/s.f., an increase of 13% since 2005.  Apple stores have average sales of $5,000/s.f.

The market cap of retail stores in the US totals $24 trillion, for telco companies $1.4 trillion, and for media companies $602 billion.  I always appreciate factoids that provide scale.  To wit:  grocery stores have a market cap of $800 billion, more than Google, which itself is more than the eight biggest media companies combined.

Retail is a major employer; as of 2015 there were 3.4 million cashiers, 2.8 million sales people, and 1.2 million clerks.  That’s almost 7.5 million people.  Any technology that disrupts their employment will have profound consequences for the country.

Apple’s share of the smart phone market is 15%; its share of the profits from the smart phone market is 80%.  The author believes that Apple is a luxury brand company, not a technology company.

Disney has 20 million customers per year at its various “worlds.”  Apple averages a million customers per day at its stores.  This is a stunning comparison – akin to the best of Harper’s Index.

Here’s another:  8% of children born into the bottom quintile of income attend college, 84% of children born into the top quintile do.  I think money might have something to do with it.

On a typical day, one sixth of the people on Earth use Facebook.

At the time Instagram was sold to Facebook for $1 billion, it employed 19 people.  It is now worth $50 billion.

Approximately one year ago, Google accounted for 60% of the growth in digital advertising, Facebook for 43% of the growth, and all others for negative 3%.  Between them Google and Facebook account for just over 50% of digital advertising.

One sixth of the questions posed to Google on a given day have never been asked before.

Humans can recognize 1,500 people on sight.

The book is full of opinions and information that makes you think, including

  • the five factors that determine the success of a luxury brand
  • Facebook’s aversion to being called a media company
  • how the New York Times bungled making money from its content on the internet
  • the eight attributes of a company that can rival the scale and scope of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Facebook
  • the eight companies most likely to join The Four to create The Five
  • the keys to personal and business success
  • attributes of an entrepreneur

Among the crazier ideas in the book is that Apple should use its cash hoard to start a college that would be free to students.  Companies who hire the graduates would be charged a fee.

There is much more.  Read the book.  If you can’t or don’t want to, read a different book.

 

The Browns and the NFL Draft

The Cleveland Browns have been a train wreck for years.  In the 19 years since they rejoined the NFL in 1999, the Browns have not finished in last place in their division four times.  In the last ten years, they have finished last in a four-team division nine times.  Their high point was 2010, when they finished 3rd in a four-team division.

Despite the surfeit of quality draft picks their on-field incompetence has garnered, they haven’t been getting better – they have somehow been getting worse.  They won one game in the last two years.  Prior to those two years, their lowest win total in any given two-year period was five, in the first two years of their rebirth.

The Browns have squandered many high draft picks, it’s among the things they are best at.  It takes time to determine whether a draft pick is going to be a quality player.  Let’s review some of the recent picks, the top two picks each year, with round selected in parenthesis:

2010  Joe Haden (1), T.J. Ward (2)

2011  Phil Taylor (1), Jabaal Sheard (2)

2012  Trent Richardson (1), Brandon Weeden (1)

2013  Barkevious Mingo (1), Leon McFadden (3)

2014  Justin Gilbert (1), Johnny Manziel (1)

2015  Danny Shelton (1), Cameron Erving (1)

It’s pretty easy to reach of couple of conclusions.  This list is not full of household names.  And these players have not been in many Pro Bowls.  Here’s the same list with games played, possible games played, Pro Bowls, and possible Pro Bowls.

2010  J. Haden 101/128, 2/8; T.J. Ward 107/128, 3/8

2011  P. Taylor 44/112, 0/7; J. Sheard 105/112, 0/7

2012  T. Richardson 46/96, 0/6; B. Weeden 34/96, 0/6

2013  B. Mingo 78/80, 0/5; L. McFadden 34/80, 0/5

2014  J. Gilbert 35/64, 0/4; J. Manziel 15/64, 0/4

2015  D. Shelton 46/48, 0/3; C. Erving 42/48, 0/3

In aggregate, the top two draft picks for the Browns have played in 65% of the games played since they were drafted.  The same players have played in five of a possible 66 Pro Bowls.  Most of the players are either out of the league or off the Browns.  Three of the players (B. Mingo, J. Sheard, and T.J. Ward) were lucky enough to get traded to teams which subsequently won a Super Bowl.  I have unofficially set the over/under on when the Brown will win a Super Bowl at 2050.

Most of the good in these numbers dates to 2010.  The person (whether GM or some other title) responsible for those selections was fired three or four GMs ago.  Whoever drafted D. Shelton and C. Erving, the second best draft year, has been fired.  And the guy who replaced him has also been fired.

There has been only one constant in the generation of putridity:  owner Jimmy Haslam.  He is the genius who decided that current coach Hue Jackson, whose record with the Browns is 1-31, is just the guy to turn things around.  And he might.  It literally can’t get worse than last year’s 0-16.

Which brings us to tomorrow’s draft.  The Browns have picks 1 and 4 in the draft.  Even though another new person is in charge of the draft for the Browns, there is little reason to think he will fare any better than the last four or five GMs.

There is always hope, but I expect the Browns to once again chase a fairy tale quarterback.  Some commentators have suggested that they might use both first round picks on a QB.  Sadly, I can’t rule it out.  It underscores their belief that they can’t win without a franchise QB.  As if they were one great QB away from something significant.

From 1990-2014, 60 QBs were drafted in the first round.  Some of them have been outstanding Hall of Fame caliber players:  Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger are probably the three best.  They were drafted 1st, 24th, and 11th respectively.  The best three quarterbacks in that time period drafted outside the first round are Tom Brady, 6th round, Bret Favre, 2nd round, and Drew Brees, 2nd round.  They are all terrific, but I might slightly prefer the guys drafted outside the first round.

And here’s the real problem:  the QBs drafted in the first round included many phenomenal duds.  Ryan Leaf, drafted 2nd in 1998, lasted 25 games.  Akili Smith, drafted 3rd overall in 1999, lasted 22 games.  Injuries didn’t end their careers, awful passing did.  JaMarcus Russell, drafted 1st in 2007, lasted 31 games.  David Carr in 1994 and Tim Couch in 1999 (by the Browns) were drafted number one overall.  They weren’t horrible, but they weren’t good either.  Jeff George, Sam Bradford, and Drew Bledsoe were drafted #1, no Hall of Famers there.

Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, and Michael Vick were all drafted #1.  They have all been good, at times great, but it was never enough to lift their team to a Super Bowl victory.   The only QBs drafted first overall since 1990 to win a Super Bowl are the Manning brothers, Peyton and Eli.

It should be clear that drafting a QB with the first pick is no panacea.  One group of football commentators concluded that only about 30% of QBs drafted in the first round become franchise quarterbacks.  http://www.footballperspective.com/what-should-be-the-expectations-for-a-first-round-qb/   The percentage is higher for top five picks, but the list of duds is still pretty impressive.  I would guess that half of the top four QBs in this draft will be duds – I just don’t know which two (of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Allen).  And I’m pretty sure the Browns don’t either.

Using ten different websites,[1] I plugged the best players into a spreadsheet.   Only four players appeared in the top ten on all ten lists – none of the QBs.  None of the QBs managed to be in the top 20 on every list.  Sam Darnold was the highest ranked QB, averaging 5.1 on nine lists; Josh Rosen averaged 5.9 on nine lists, Baker Mayfield averaged 10.9 on nine lists; Josh Allen averaged 8 on six lists, meaning he was outside the top 20 on four lists.

The highest ranked players are Saquon Barkley (RB) 2.2, Quenton Nelson (G) 3.4, Bradley Chubb (DE) 4.0, and Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) 4.6.  These players could all be game changers and have low bust potential.

I suspect the Browns will select a QB.  The shame of that is that they already have a good quarterback.  Tyrod Taylor will not be the weak link on the Browns.  The Browns have had decent QBs before, but never surrounded them with the best possible team because of their endless quest for a better quarterback.  End the quest.

The goal should be the best possible team, not the best possible quarterback.  I believe the Browns should draft two of the best four players and take a QB later, when the consequences of a bust are less dramatic.  But they won’t.  Even so, I think they will win more games than they won last year.  At worst, they won’t win fewer.

Good luck Browns fans.

[1] drafttek.com, jenkins at nfl.com, mayock at nfl.com, si.com, bleacherreport.com, usatoday.com, philly.com, bleedinggreennation.com, sbnation.com, and miller at bleacherreport.com

Valentine’s Day

A friend called this morning and said “you have to write about love.”  He was talking about the increasing use of the word by young adults – they love pizza, they love a movie, they even love the idea of using the word “love” in papers and emails intended for professors.  He thinks they use the word excessively and inappropriately.  He’s probably right.

So I decided to write a post about love.  Well, not really.  I had most of this already written because I have been thinking about love since Valentine’s Day.  (Not non-stop.)  A professional blogger (one who hopes to make money) would have posted a blog of this nature, you know, on Valentine’s Day.  Amateurish me took the prompting that the day provided and thought about it for three weeks.

Valentine’s Day has all the makings of a Hallmark holiday:  one that is designed primarily to sell greeting cards.  But its roots are Roman, long predating the advent of Hallmark Cards, Inc. or the trappings of commercialism.  It is and always has been a day associated with love.[1]  Something similar can be said for country music.

I grew up in Maine and was inundated with what is now called classic country music.  My mother’s favorite performer was Conway Twitty and for good reason.  He had an outstanding emotive voice, remains a country legend, and was a good enough baseball player to be offered a contract by the Philadelphia Phillies.  Twitty also had significant success singing pop music, peaking with the number one hit It’s Only Make Believe.[2]  But his true calling was country music, where he could sing about strong, passionate, unending love.

In the song Fifteen Years Ago, which was written by Raymond Smith, the singer bumps into a friend, who mentions the name of a woman the singer used to date.  Twitty sang:

“Fifteen years ago and I still feel the same.

Why did he have to mention your name?

I’m as broken up inside as if it’s been a week or so

Takes a mighty strong love

To keep a man thinking of

A girl he hasn’t seen since fifteen years ago.”[3]

After fifteen years, the singer still feels the pain of the breakup as if it happened last week.  That is a “mighty strong love,” but not singular.  In the song Hello Darling, which Twitty (real name Harold Jenkins) both wrote and performed, the conceit is that the singer runs into an old girlfriend.  Upon being asked how he is, he replies:

“How am I doing?

I’m doing alright

Except I can’t sleep and I cry all night ‘til dawn.”

 

As they say goodbye, he sings:

 

“If you should ever find it

In your heart to forgive me

Come back, darlin’

I’ll be waiting for you.”[4]

 

We are supposed to believe that he has forsaken all other women and is forlornly waiting for her to return to him.  Again, “a mighty strong love,” and again not unique.

George Jones sang the anthem of one-sided love stories:  He Stopped Loving Her Today.  Jones hated the song when he first heard it, but he made it his own and it remade Jones, whose career had faltered.  Written in 1980, the singer tells of his friend who has been in love with a woman that he hasn’t seen since 1962.  Alas,

“He stopped loving her today

They placed a wreath upon his door

And soon they’ll carry him away

He stopped loving her today.”[5]

 

These are tales of powerful love that caused sad lives.  This is the kind of stuff that, fortunately, you don’t see every day.  I don’t know of anyone who has forsaken relationships forever because of a lost love.  Do you?  I believe this brand of love belongs exclusively to country songs, romantic novels, and the like.  It certainly isn’t the love of today’s college students, who apply the word to any fleeting fancy.

One last thought – imagine that you are the subject of such a song.  That you caused someone to give up on love, that they loved you so much that they can’t envision loving someone else.  Would you feel good about that?  It seems like it might be a significant ego boost.  Or would you feel bad, that you had (however inadvertently) caused a life of sorrow?  I can say with a high degree of confidence that I have never inspired anybody to write such a plaintive love song.

[1] The day is named for a bishop who performed marriage ceremonies for couples who were otherwise forbidden to marry each other.  His actions did not please the emperor, who had him beheaded.

[2]   It doesn’t take much imagination to hear a little Elvis in this song.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJefPaBsSug

[3] To hear the song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCRH9JLaoiM  The quoted portion starts 44 seconds in.  There is no video.

[4] This link has video of a young Conway wearing a suit and tie in front of a fireplace:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Og1QRtcWdEY   The first excerpt starts at 40 seconds, the second at 2:06.

[5] This song is haunting.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubKUP8c0FHE The quoted verse can be found at 1:54.

Tax Reform

I love the idea of tax reform.  I love the idea of tax simplification even better.  Based on my limited knowledge of tax bills being discussed in Washington, they collectively deliver neither reform nor simplification.  I understand that these goals are not easy to achieve.  What worthwhile goal is?  Tweaking some deductions and lowering some rates is not tax reform, unless you consider exchanging a used white oxford shirt for a new white oxford shirt wardrobe reform.

A big picture look at the tax reform construct reveals:

  1. Corporate tax rates are lowered significantly. I think this is probably a good idea because the rates are high compared to corporate rates in other countries.  But it is no panacea.  Companies make few large decisions based solely on tax rates.  Moreover, companies almost never hire more people because taxes are lower; they hire people when the new hires can help the company generate more profits.  Tax rates influence how much profit a company gets to keep, not whether it will be profitable.

Lower tax rates are not reform.  Changing the tax treatment of dividends would be a significant and long overdue reform.  Currently if a company with $10 million in profit pays $5 million in dividends to shareholders, it must pay taxes on the $10,000,000 profit.  That may or may not be fair.  What is certainly unfair is to then tax the shareholders on the $5,000,000 in dividends that they received.  That is double taxation, both the company and its shareholders pay taxes (though at different rates) on the same $5,000,000.  As far as I can tell, no change is contemplated.

  1. The estate tax is being eliminated. This is true reform, but it is also virtually meaningless.  Of the 2.6 million people who died in 2013, only 4,700 paid federal estate tax – that’s a bit less than one person out of every 550 who died.  http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-many-people-pay-estate-tax

This tax is often derisively called the “death tax,” as if that makes is worse than any other tax.  Taxes are just the way a government pays for the things it does.  The focus of any tax reform should be to ensure that government can pay for its own operations and to make paying taxes easier for the taxpayers.  Lessening the tax burden is a separate issue, though more important.  The best way to lessen the tax burden is to reduce governmental operations.  Our politicians seem incapable of doing that.

The bottom line is that the estate tax doesn’t affect many people and doesn’t raise much money (about $20 billion a year).  Instead of eliminating it, which would allow the mega-rich to avoid taxes on potentially billions of dollars of appreciation,[1] we should raise the floor.  At the current $5,000,000 or so, few family farms need to be sold to pay estate taxes (a common claim among detractors of estate taxes), but to make sure it never happens, let’s raise the floor to $50,000,000.  Then only the truly wealthy would be subject to this tax and it would continue to pay for some minimal level of governmental operations and would undercut opponents who say that tax reform inordinately benefits the wealthy.

  1. Deduction tweaking is a mixed bag. The current concept calls for a higher standard deduction but lesser itemized deductions.  Most analysis suggests that the majority of lower and middle class taxpayers will pay less (for a few years[2]), but that some significant minority (primarily those in states with high state and local taxes) will pay more.  There’s really nothing inherently wrong with that – the current system has the opposite effect or did when it was instituted.
  2. The reform is going to increase the budget deficit by $1.5 trillion over ten years. Maybe a little less, maybe a little more depending on how the economy does.  Of course, nobody knows the exact number, only that the deficit will be grow from the current $400 billion or so.  And here I thought we wanted the deficit to be decrease.

Tax reform should be budget neutral in concept, it shouldn’t assume a $1 trillion plus hole.  I am constantly amazed at how few Republican politicians are concerned about adding substantially to the deficit when they control the budgetary process.  Oh how they caterwaul when deficit increase while the Democrats are in charge.

In short, this particular version of “tax reform” is not very reformy.  They should call it the tax change bill because they are just making a few changes.  They should also tell POTUS that his billionaire status will be enhanced not reduced by the tax plan.  POTUS seems to think that eliminating the estate tax will cost his family a fortune.  Although we can’t know for sure because he refuses to release his tax returns,[3] it is virtually inconceivable that, even if he pays a bit more annually (which is unlikely), his family is a loser in aggregate.  If he is worth close to $10 billion (as he claims), the elimination of estate taxes will save his family hundreds of millions.

I believe we should engage in serious tax reform that simplifies the tax system and is revenue neutral.  Currently the federal income tax raises approximately $1.7 trillion.  https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/policy-basics-where-do-federal-tax-revenues-come-from  The total personal income of taxpayers is $16 trillion.  https://www.statista.com/statistics/216756/us-personal-income/   Personal income includes income from all sources:  salary, dividends, interest, pass-through businesses, etc.

I would treat them all the same, income is income. [4]  I would eliminate all personal deductions, all personal exemptions.  ALL OF THEM.  That is reform.  That is simple.  That would allow us to file our taxes on a postcard.

Furthermore, I would ignore all income below some floor, let’s call it $30,000.  A  single taxpayer would have the first $30,000 of income ignored, a married couple the first $60,000.  All income over this level would be taxed in an increasing path until we reached $1.7 trillion in taxes.

I can’t find enough good information that enables me to do the math.[5]  But it’s not complicated.  Think about it this way – the next $10,000 of income for every taxpayer could be taxes at 10%, the next $10,000 at 15%, etc., until we reach the number that income taxes currently raise.  There would be many tax brackets, but they would be based solely on income and would not affect deductions or exemptions or anything else – because there is nothing else.  The top rate might have to be as high as 35%, but we need to average “only” 10% or so to raise $1.7 trillion based on total personal income of $16 trillion.

A simple plan like this would allow people to make decisions based solely on their income, not whether this or that is deductible.  The biggest problem with this plan (other than the fact that it will never happen) is trying to find new jobs for the various tax professionals who would be rendered obsolete.  I would not consider that a tragedy.

 

 

[1] Company founders can avoid all tax liability under the new plan by never selling their stock.

[2] Many of the reforms that benefit lower and middle income taxpayers are scheduled to terminate in the next few years.  This is necessary to ensure that the deficit grows only so much.  It’s a game the partisans of the tax plan employ to keep the estimated increase in the deficit below a certain level for political reasons.  They insist that the reforms that terminate will be extended, meaning that the true deficit will be greater than currently estimated.

[3] What is he hiding?  Hasn’t he said something similar about people who didn’t want to disclose something?

[4] I believe the country would support one massive exception – “profits” from the sale of a personal residence should not count as income.  “Profits” is in quotes because most “profits” from the sale of a personal residence are really just inflation.  Most homes do not truly appreciate.

[5] Believe me, I tried.  I have the spreadsheets to prove it.

Political Integrity

Donald Trump is among the most mendacious Presidents in the history of our country.  Sadly, he is not without serious competition – Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon, and Lyndon Johnson all get strong consideration and that doesn’t take us farther back than 1960.  But none of them have the prolonged documented track record of Donald Trump.[1]  The man will say anything that supports the “idea” he is shepherding at the time without regard to its truth, its consistency with his own prior statements, or its future usefulness.  These factors, which most of us consider important if not obligatory, are ignored in the moment.  All that matters to Donald Trump is the current moment and in that moment, he must be considered awesome.  It is beyond bizarre.[2]

That would be bad enough.  What makes it worse is the huge raft of people willing to offer support to whatever poppycock he happens to spew in the moment.  That is the true danger:  that enough people buy into the Trump cult of personality that they forget to exercise reason and independent thought, thereby forfeiting political integrity.

Hannah Arendt stated that “the ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannah_Arendt  We are increasingly seeing such people.  Distressingly, the person most committed to blurring fact and fiction, truth and falsity, resides in the White House.  In one prime example, he is among the few Americans with the gall to assert that he doesn’t believe the Russians attempted to interfere in our most recent presidential election.  It beggars description.

Where is Margaret Chase Smith (a fellow Mainer[3]) when we need her.[4]  She is almost an avatar for political integrity.  She was one of Maine’s US Senators throughout my youth.  Before that (while also a Senator), she was among the first prominent people to stand up to the scourge of McCarthyism.  The following quotes from her are appropriate to our times.  See https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Margaret_Chase_Smith

“One of the basic causes for all the trouble in the world today is that people talk too much and think too little.  They act too impulsively without thinking.”  A certain frequent Twitter user comes to mind.  It’s a little scary to ponder the new 280 character limit.

“I speak as a Republican, I speak as a woman, I speak as a United States Senator, I speak as an American.  I don’t want to see the Republican Party ride to political victory on the four horsemen of calumny—fear, ignorance, bigotry, and smear.”  At times, POTUS embraces these horsemen.  Too many Republicans support him regardless because of the opportunity to take advantage of having control of Congress and the Presidency.  The party of Lincoln used to govern based on principles (including family values).  It is now full of fervent converts to the belief that the ends justify the means.

“Those of us who shout the loudest about Americanism in making character assassinations are all too frequently those who, by our own words and acts, ignore basic principles such as the right to criticize, the right to hold unpopular beliefs, the right to protest, the right to independent thought.”  Politicians and supporters of both parties enjoy hurling accusations across the aisle.  When challenged, most partisans are more likely to point to an error by the opposition than to discuss the challenge.  It helps them survive the moment, but it does not serve the country.

John Adams stated about the White House:  “I pray heaven to bestow the best of blessings on this house, and all that shall hereafter inhabit it.  May none but honest and wise men ever rule under this roof.”  FDR had this quote carved into a wooden mantelpiece in the White House.  JFK had it carved into marble mantelpiece in the White House.  DJT has erased it, if not in fact, then in spirit.  https://www.whitehousehistory.org/photos/adamss-blessing-was-carved-into-the-state-dining-room-mantel-in-1945

One last quote from MCS aptly underscores my hopes for the future:  “As an American, I want to see our nation recapture the strength and unity it once had when we fought the enemy instead of ourselves.”  It is farcical to watch this play out regarding sexual abuse.  Many of our politicians and political pundits are appalled at abuse committed by political opponents, but surprisingly forgiving of or uncommunicative about abuse committed by political friends.  We need to remember that the enemy is abuse.  We need to unite against abuse, not pick and choose based on the political party of the abuser.

Margaret Chase Smith was the first woman to serve in both houses of Congress.  She was the first woman nominated to be president by a major political party (the Republican Party in 1964).  She had political integrity.  Donald J. Trump doesn’t.  She acted and spoke based on principle; he acts and speaks based on expediency.  Sad.

[1]  I’m not going to provide support for this proposition, it is manifest.  Pick up any newspaper that has been printed on any given day since he started campaigning and the chances are high that on the front page, Donald Trump will have been quoted saying something that is absurd, unfounded, or patently untrue.

[2]   Did he really need to call out the UCLA basketball players for not saying “thank you” quickly enough to suit his ego?

[3]  To foreigners (anyone who is not from Maine), we are “Mainers.”  Among ourselves, it is not uncommon to hear self-references to “Mainiacs.”

[4]  She died in 1995 at the age of 97.

A Thought Experiment about Flags

Let’s engage in a thought experiment.  Imagine America in the future.

In scenario number one, we have an America much as it looks today—except there are no national flags.  All other aspects of life are the same, including schools, restaurants, the federal, state, and local governments, shopping malls, a separate and independent judiciary, movie theatres, and libraries, etc.  But again, there are no national flags anywhere.

In scenario number two, we have an America much as it looks today.  There are flags everywhere – at schools, government buildings, along public roads, at many businesses and private residences.  Flags fly anywhere someone wants to put them.  But one of the freedoms that the flag represents is missing.  Pick a freedom, any freedom – freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of the press.  It hardly matters which freedom is missing, just pick one.

Now tell me which America you would rather live in:  an America without a flag that you currently love and cherish or an America without a freedom that you currently love and cherish.  Is it even a close call?

Let’s look a bit further.  Here are the countries that have the worst record regarding religious freedom:

Burma, China, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Uzbekistan.

https://www.indexoncensorship.org/2014/01/worst-countries-religious-freedom/

Here are the countries with the worst record regarding freedom of the press:

North Korea, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Eritrea,  Belarus, Cuba, Iran, Equatorial Guinea, Syria, and Bahrain.

https://freedomhouse.org/article/10-worst-countries-journalists

Here are the countries with the worst record regarding freedom of speech:

Senegal, Jordan, Pakistan, Ukraine, Burkina Faso, Vietnam, Lebanon, Japan, Turkey, and Russia.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/freedom-of-speech-country-comparison/

So if you want to imagine an America without a basic freedom, you don’t have to try very hard.  There are lots of countries in the world that lack basic freedoms and rights.  Are you in a hurry to visit these places, let alone live in one?

Even the countries above don’t ban their own flag.  Some of the most despotic regimes in world history have flown their flags with enthusiastic abandon.  Think about the Nazis, when the Swastika reigned supreme.  Think about North Korea, where an American student was sentenced to hard labor (and likely tortured) for attempting to steal a propaganda poster.  Imagine if he had attempted to steal a flag.  Think about the Ku Klux Klan which honors the Swastika (the flag of the holocaust) and the Southern Cross (the flag of the Confederacy and slavery).  http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article29557972.html

Flags are both good and bad.  They can symbolize great freedoms or they can stand for repression and oppression.  Our US flag is great, not in and of itself, but because it embodies the freedoms that Americans enjoy.

There is no doubt in my mind that I would much prefer a future devoid of the Stars and Stripes than one devoid of any of the freedoms symbolized by our flag.

Musings: baseball, hoax, college football, peripathetic

  1. Both wild card games were won by the team with the best record. Good.  Even so, having two one-game “playoff” games is stupid.  Playing 162 games and making the “playoffs” for one whole game just doesn’t make sense.  Neither does having a five-game series in the playoffs.  It’s as if MLB wants lesser teams to win.

A better system would be to eliminate divisions.  They were created in 1969, so it’s not like they have ancient roots.  Instead each league should play a balanced schedule; the current unbalanced schedule in which teams play almost half of their games against the other four teams in their division is absurd.  Repeat:  absurd.

A balanced schedule would put all teams in a league on equal footing; none would play a weaker or stronger schedule.  My scheme is radical, so I might as well double down and propose that MLB decrease the schedule from 162 to 154 games.[1]  One hundred fifty-four is the perfect number for two reasons.  First it allows each team in a league to play every other team 11 times.  Second, it’s the number of games that all major league teams played from the early 20th century until 1960 when baseball expanded.[2]

Notice that there is no provision for interleague games.  Even better.  That was another silly Bud Selig creation (like the one-game wild card playoff), that is best discarded as quickly as possible.  With 15 teams in each league and each team playing all of its games within its own league, one team in each league will always be without an opponent.  So what?  Let the players enjoy a few three-day vacations during the season in addition to the all-star break.  I’m sure they will love it.  And the fans will be able to adjust.

Ok – no interleague play, no unbalanced schedule, no divisions, and “only” 154 games.  Time to tackle the playoffs:  the top four teams in each league make the playoffs.  The #1 and the #4 seed play in the first round, as do the #2 and #3 seeds.  There will have to be a tie-break system to determine seeds, but no extra games, unless the #4 and #5 or more finished tied.

The first round will be seven games with no extra days between games.  That will reward the team with deeper starting pitching.  Because of travel and other off days built in to the current system, many teams only use their top three starting pitchers.  The second round and the World Series would also be seven games with no extra days between games.  The teams all fly charter planes, so the players will be able to handle it, just like they do all year.  I might even consider a longer World Series.  In the early days, a few World Series were played until a team won five games (1903 and 1919-1921).[3]

Eliminating travel days would help the better teams, who are presumably deeper in pitching and position players – otherwise they wouldn’t have won more regular season games.  It would also enable the post-season to end before November.  Baseball should not be played when players can see their own breath.

These ideas are available to MLB for the asking.  If they want to give me two tickets to the next World Series game seven, I probably wouldn’t say no.

  1. In November 2004, Colin Powell, then US Secretary of State, in response to Russian interference in the elections in Ukraine, stated “We cannot accept this result as legitimate because it does not meet international standards and because there has not been an investigation of the numerous and credible reports of fraud and abuse.”     http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10212-2004Nov24.html

In September 2017, President Donald Trump, in response to various investigations regarding Russian interference in the elections in the United States, stated “I call it the Russian Hoax, one of the great hoaxes.”

I’m not saying Trump’s victory wasn’t legitimate – it was unless someone can prove otherwise.  And, as far as I can tell, nobody is even trying to.  That does not mean the Russians did not interfere, which is why the investigations are important.  We must determine what happened and attempt to prevent it from happening again.  Calling it a hoax demeans virtually every American, all of whom know that the Russians were up to something.  Whether that something worked, whether it was collusion, even whether it influenced a single vote, has not been proven – and may never be.  But that doesn’t mean that the interference doesn’t matter.  And it is beyond debate that their attempt to influence the election was not a hoax.

  1. Q: Why is Ohio State’s football team ranked above Washington State’s?

A:  Pedigree.

Oh, I guess you could argue that OSU is more likely to win the rest of its game than WSU.  But based on what has happened so far, there is no reason to rank OSU ahead of WSU.  They have both played five games – WSU is 5-0, OSU is 4-1.

OSU has beaten juggernauts like Indiana (48th in Sagarin’s College Football Rankings — http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm ), UNLV (101), Rutgers (108), and Army (138).  That’s an average ranking of 99.  99!  That is an incredibly unimpressive string of victories.

WSU has done something similar, defeating Boise St. (49), Oregon St. (111), Montana St. (135) and Nevada (138).  That’s an average ranking of 108, even worse than OSU, though not appreciably so.

But what about the fifth game you ask.  OSU played Oklahoma (who was ranked in the top ten at the time) at home and was favored by a bit more than a touchdown.  They managed to lose decisively.  The final score, 31-16, was not indicative of how little chance OSU had to win.  Oklahoma dominated the second half.

Meanwhile, WSU played USC (who was ranked in the top ten at the time) at home and was a five-point (or so) underdog.  They won.  It wasn’t decisive, but it was a victory.

To recap – OSU and WSU have played four nobodies and beaten them.  They have also each played one (at the time) top ten team.  WSU won; OSU lost, but is higher ranked because . . .

  1. Neologism (see previous post https://www.notesfromnokomis.com/?p=627 ) – peripathetic. This word was created (by yours truly) in “honor” of the Cleveland Browns.  The word combines “peripatetic,” which describes a person who travels from place to place and “pathetic,” which needs no explanation.  Neither does the ascription of that word to the Browns.

[1] There would be 5% fewer games.  The overall impact on revenues is uncertain, but would likely be less than 5%.  For example, no team operates at full capacity, so they can still sell the same number of tickets, just at slightly fewer games.

[2] Does anybody know why baseball expanded?  I gave you a clue in my last post.

[3] Baseball expanded in 1960 to forestall the Federal League.

What He Said

I have written about Colin Kaepernick before.
https://www.notesfromnokomis.com/?p=563 Not much has changed, except that POTUS has weighed in with his usual nuanced and thoughtful approach. (For those unable to read sarcasm, what I really mean is “unnuanced and not even close to thoughtful.”)
Rather than repeat myself, I thought I would present my first guest post — though the author  doesn’t know it — he invited others (including me) to pass along his Facebook post.  BTW, his Facebook post appears to be real.  http://www.businessinsider.com/army-veteran-nfl-players-kneeling-during-national-anthem-trump-2017-9
Without further ado, I present Michael Sand.
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I’ve seen a lot of posts over the last 24 hours regarding “respecting the flag” and what that means…and how athletes who use their public forum to voice dissent are somehow “unpatriotic”. I want to offer a different opinion.

My father is buried at the foot of the flagpole in Golden Gate National Cemetery. He landed at Normandy, fought at the Battle of the Bulge and liberated Nazi camps in Germany. His enemy was fascism. I served as a Green Beret in the early 1970s (pretty sure you all know what that entails). Our enemy at the time was communism. My son is currently a serving officer in the Army, who on his dress blues wears the Bronze Star he was awarded during a year-long tour in Afghanistan. His enemy is and was the Taliban and the threat of terrorism.

Three generations of my family, serving the USA, in harms’ way. Three vastly different enemies, but enemies who shared one common trait. ALL of them stifle free speech. All of them bully, degrade and terrorize those who hold opposing views and who peacefully express them. All of them are intolerant and demand “loyalty” to the leader.

I can tell you, speaking for three generations of my family, it is PRECISELY for men like Kaepernick, and his right to peacefully protest injustice, that we were willing to serve. There is NOTHING more respectful of our country than living up to its ideals. There is nothing more patriotic than to say “I’m concerned with injustice, and will use my position to try and address it.”

Want to know what’s unpatriotic? Using your white privilege to avoid serving, citing “bone spurs in the heel” while playing varsity tennis at college while others went. Want to know what is antithetical to American values? Using the most powerful pulpit in the land to incite violence – against ANYONE. Want to define disgraceful behavior? Denigrating a man like Senator John McCain’s service and heroism while you sat home.

Want to respect the American flag? Then respect the ideals for which it stands. Bullying language and calling peaceful protesters “sons of bitches” who should be fired aren’t among them.

p..s. anyone wishing to share this, please feel free.

Straw Man

“A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent’s argument, while refuting an argument that was not advanced by that opponent.  One who engages in this fallacy is said to be “attacking a straw man”.”  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

Today I’m not going to attack a straw man, I’m going to attack an actual man.  The Columbus Dispatch recently published a letter to the editor.  The arguments presented are representative of many people who support President Trump.  I’m not going to suggest they are representative of the smart thoughtful people who support President Trump.[1]

I’m going to quote the letter one sentence at a time (marked “L”) and provide a short comment about each sentence (“M” for me).

L – It’s time to support our president.

M – No, it’s not.  It never is, except in times of war that threaten the existence of the Republic.  Instead we should support our president when we agree with his policies and we should oppose our president when we disagree with his policies.  Moreover, given the tenor of the rest of the letter, it is apparent that the writer did not support the previous President.[2]

L – Ever since President Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, the Democrats, media and old-school Republicans have done everything they can to discredit our President.

M – There is no doubt that “the Democrats, media and old-school Republicans” have not gone out of their way to help President Trump.  Why should they?  That isn’t their job.  Politicians are supposed to help govern the country in the best way possible, not to blindly support a President whose policies they disagree with.  The media is supposed to report the news.  With very few and relatively small exceptions, they have done little more than expose reality.  With very few and relatively small exceptions, the President has caused himself more problems than the media has.  Reading his twitter feed is like watching a six-month-long train wreck.

L – He won and will be our president for the next eight years.

M – There is no doubt that President Trump won the election.  I haven’t heard any credible commentator question the result of the election.  I hear lots of supporters of President Trump endlessly repeat that he won, as if that justifies everything he has ever done or will ever do.  He won, he is President.  Move on.

The last time I checked the Constitution of the United States, Presidents serve four-year terms.

L – The media and their willing sycophants drum up fake story after fake story and come up with nothing.

M – As far as I can tell, more fake stories are generated in the White House than in the “media,” which also included conservative outlets.  Yesterday the White House Communications Director accused a White House staffer of leaking his financial disclosure information “which is a felony.”  It’s not a felony to publish information contained in a public document.  http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/jul/27/anthony-scaramucci/it-felony-leak-financial-disclosure-form-anthony-s/ The accusation of “felony” was fake news.  And it’s among the Communication Director’s more reasonable comments in the last couple of days.  At least it wasn’t vulgar.

As for coming up with nothing:  at a minimum the media have caused Jared Kushner’s memory to improve each time they uncover something else he was legally required to disclose.  Recently, that included 77 assets valued at $10 million or so and more than 100 meetings with foreign contacts.  The omissions might not be illegal, might not even be important, but they most assuredly are not nothing.   http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/343250-kushner-updates-financial-disclosure-after-omitting-dozens-of-assets

L – They spend thousands of broadcast hours trying to get the public to think the president actually did something with the Russians to defeat Clinton.

M – I have not heard anyone suggest that President Trump “did something with the Russians” during the campaign.  Many hours have been devoted to what Paul Manafort, Donald Trump, Jr., Jared Kushner, Michael Flynn, and others did with the Russians.  Whether that something was illegal, collusion, or intended to “defeat Clinton” has not been established and may never be established.

A fascinatingly revealing poll suggests just how loyal the President’s base is.  Even though Donald Trump, Jr. has admitted that he met with a specific Russian attorney during the campaign, a poll indicates that 45% of people who voted for President Trump don’t believe that Donald Trump, Jr. met with her.    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-jr-russian-meeting-poll-majority-supporters-dont-believe-it-happened-despite-son-admitting-it-a7847636.html

L– — These investigations, costing untold tax dollars, have come up with no factual evidence.

M – No doubt the investigations cost money, but it’s not exactly a budget-busting amount.  As for “no factual evidence”:  I would suggest that the writer is one of the people who doesn’t believe that Donald Trump, Jr. met with Natalya Veselnitskaya.

L – I did notice that the fake media never mentions our former president inserting himself into the Israeli elections and his reported efforts to defeat our friend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

M – How is this relevant to anything?  If President Obama might have broken the law, he should be investigated.  If he didn’t, he shouldn’t.

L – Now we have the Obamacare fiasco, a bill that will implode on its own in due time.

M – As I have stated I don’t really understand the various complexities of Obamacare.  I doubt the letter writer does either.  I suggest that there aren’t many major bills that won’t “implode” eventually – because the world is dynamic.  There is no question that Obamacare has flaws.  Some are inherent, some are the result of changes in the world since the bill was enacted.  Some of the flaws could have been addressed by Congress, but it has collectively refused to address the flaws, choosing instead to attempt to throw it out wholesale.

L – The problem is that when it does implode millions will lose their insurance.

M – That is why Congress should address the flaws or implement a new health care plan.  Thus far it has had neither the votes nor the courage to do either.

L – Some rogue Republicans, Sen. Rob Portman among them, presently refuse to support a new health-care bill.

M – Apparently any Republican who might put the interests of his or her constituents above those of the Republican Party is “rogue.”[3]  Portman, by the way, voted for the “skinny” repeal of Obamacare last night.  That bill was so flawed that most Republican Senators wouldn’t vote for it until they were assured that the House of Representatives would not approve the bill as presented.

L – We finally elected a non-politician for president, giving him both houses of Congress, but we did not count on the four or five Senate prima donnas who listen to fake news and misleading TV advertisements for their votes.

M – I agree that President Trump is not a career politician and that his party does have control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.  I doubt the letter writer has any evidence that, whoever the prima donnas are, they relied on “misleading TV advertisements” when deciding how to vote.  As for the “fake news”:  shouldn’t we use that term only when it truly applies, not to refer to anything reported that is contrary to our own personal politics?

L – Those against the new bill are either not informed or stand to make millions as long as the current health-care law remains.

M – “Not informed” refers to many members of the Senate, several of whom indicated that the bill was not widely distributed for their review.  As for “make millions”:  well, it’s just a stupid thing to say.

L – Our president has an agenda, which includes building “The Wall”, income-tax reform, a new health-care law and upgrading our infrastructure.

M – No argument from me.  Those are things that President Trump has indicated he would like to do.

L – It’s time for the Democrats to stop stonewalling every appointee, and for the media to get on board for the good of the country.

M – I’m not sure the Democrats have stonewalled any appointee.  They don’t have the votes.  The real problem regarding political appointees is that not enough have been nominated.  According to Money, as of early June, President Trump had nominated only 111 appointees to fill 1,100 top-tier positions.  That is not the Democrats’ fault.   http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/07/news/economy/trump-staffing-vacancies/index.html

I’m not sure what the media are supposed to “get on board.”  Does the letter writer want slavish advocacy for the government’s policies?  If so, I recommend that he read Russia Today or People’s Daily.  They are the official mouthpieces of their respective governments.

L – Trump has been in office for only seven months.

M – I agree, in principle.  It has been slightly over six months – even if it seems longer.

L – It will take him many more months, even years, to undo what has taken place in the past eight years.

M – Classic generic partisan rant.  Who knows what the letter writer is referring to?  Does he want to undo the increase in GDP?  I’m against that.  Does he want to lessen the huge increase in the federal deficit?  I’m for that.  Does he think we should return to the 8% unemployment rate that greeted President Obama?  I doubt it.  We know he wants to get rid of Obamacare.  Maybe that’s enough for him.

 

That’s the end of the letter.  As I mentioned, I have many smart thoughtful friends who voted for and continue to support President Trump.  I do not believe that this letter represents their thinking.  But I do believe that this letter represents the thinking of many (most?) of President Trump’s supporters.  Sad.

 

[1] I know many smart thoughtful people who voted for and support President Trump.

[2] The letter writer believes in “do as I say, not as I do.”

Definition of “rogue,” the adjective

  1. (of an animal) living apart from the main group, and possibly dangerous
  2. behaving in a different way from other similar people or things, often causing damage

http://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/us/definition/english/rogue_2