Baseball 2021

Tonight is the first time that the 2021 baseball season could end. The Braves have won three games, a fourth victory concludes the World Series. This is always a bittersweet day for me – exciting because there could be a new champion, sad because it will be a long wait until meaningful games are played next spring.

[The grand slam that Adam Duvall just hit makes it much more likely that the season will end tonight.]

I watched a lot of games this summer.[1] First, it was nice to have full summer of games after last year’s pandemic-induced truncated season. Second, the Red Sox played well, much better than last season, and a bit better than expected. The Red Sox were quite brutal last year, winning only 40% of their games, which was fourth worst in the majors (there are 30 teams). This year they won almost 57% of their games, which only six teams bettered.  

[The Braves 4-run lead lasted less than two innings, though they have regained the lead 5-4.]

But the turnaround was not entirely unexpected, even to non-fans of the Red Sox. There is a baseball website (indeed there are so many good ones that even I can’t read them all) called Fangraphs,[2] which predicts how each player will perform and, based on that, how many games each team will win. They predicted that the Red Sox would win 88 games; they finished the season with 92 wins.

Below is a chart that shows (according to Fangraphs) how each team fared against its expectation. You will see extreme variability. This is not necessarily a fault of the prediction system. It is common for teams that play well (in the first half of the season) to improve their team with trades and therefore win more games than would have been expected based on the season-opening roster. And – teams that aren’t playing well often make trades that weaken their roster this year, while (hopefully) strengthening their team in the future.

TeamPredictedActualWins over
WinsWinsPrediction
Giants7810729
Mariners739017
Rays8310017
Brewers799516
Cardinals799011
Dodgers9610610
Reds76837
Astros89956
Rockies68746
Athletics81865
White Sox88935
Red Sox88924
Tigers73774
Blue Jays89912
Phillies80822
Braves8988-1
Cleveland8180-1
Pirates6561-4
Royals7874-4
Yankees9692-4
Marlins7267-5
Cubs7771-6
Angels8477-7
Rangers7160-11
Mets9177-14
Orioles6752-15
Padres9479-15
Twins8873-15
Nationals8365-18
Diamondbacks7452-22

As you can see, the Giants massively exceeded expectations in winning the most games in the league. But the Dodgers, who were predicted to win more games than any other team also substantially exceeded expectations. And even teams expected to be bad can underperform. The Orioles and Pirates were predicted to have the fewest wins in the AL and NL respectively (seemingly perennially) and they both managed to underperform.

This chart is a proxy for how each fan base feels about their team. Those with an overperformance, like the Mariners and Reds, probably have pretty happy fans. Even though they didn’t make the playoffs, they were playing games that mattered deep into September. On the other hand, fans of the Padres and Nationals, who began the season with championship aspirations, are rather despondent.

Over or under performing is all well and good and might influence a fan’s psyche over the course of a season. But what really matters is making the playoffs, and eight of the teams that made the playoffs exceeded expectations. Only the Braves (one game fewer) and the Yankees (four fewer) made the playoffs while winning fewer games than expected.

I was quite happy with the Red Sox season. They led their division for 74 days in the middle of the season. They won 46 games against teams with a winning record, only three teams won more. They dominated teams with a losing record, going 46-22, but this highlights a huge inequity in baseball scheduling. The Giants and Dodgers, who led with majors with 107 and 106 wins respectively, played 99 and 100 games against teams with losing records, at least 30 more games against weak competition than the Red Sox.

[The Astros now lead 9-5 in the eighth inning, which almost certainly means there will be a game six in Houston.]

To top off the season, the Red Sox played their archrivals the Yankees in the AL wildcard game and prevailed. Then they played the top team in their division in a best of five series. The current playoff system is relatively stupid. It rewards teams who win a weak division more than teams, like the Dodgers, who won the second most games in the majors. And in this case, it forced the Red Sox to play the Rays, whom they had already played 19 times.

Quick fix for playoffs system, no wild card game. Only the top four teams make the playoffs, without regard to division, and all series are best of seven. (I may have written about this before. If I did, it bears repeating.)

The Red Sox beat the Rays in four games and then fell to the Astros in six games. Then I started rooting against the Astros, who are something of a pariah team based on a cheating scandal from a couple of years ago. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Red Sox tweak their roster during the off-season.

[Astros won 9-5.]

And I’m looking forward to at least one more World Series game this season.


[1] Major League Baseball sells a cable package for a bit under $200, which provides access to almost every game played every day of the season, and which I consider about the best money I spend every year.

[2] https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

The Baseball Playoffs Have Begun

With the stupendously unfair wild card games out of the way, we can focus on true playoff baseball.  “Unfair” because one game in baseball is irrelevant, a rounding error over the course of 162 games.  The outrageously bad Baltimore Orioles won 61 fewer games than the Red Sox, but they still won 47 games.  A good NFL team needs at least four years to win 47 games.

Bad as they were, the Orioles had a four-game win streak and two three-game win streaks.  In late July, they won three games in a row by scores of 15-5, 11-2, and 11-5, against a Tampa Bay Rays team that won 90 games.  That was after the Orioles had traded away their best player, Manny Machado, and their best relief pitcher, Zach Britton.  They did it again in late August, after trading away a starting pitcher, their closer, and their starting 2nd baseman.  That time, they won three in a row over the 73-win Toronto Blue Jays by scores of 7-0, 12-5, and 10-5.  A really bad baseball team can still win consecutive games convincingly.

My general point is that one game in baseball signifies almost nothing, it certainly doesn’t prove anything.  But, over the past two days, one game consigned the Oakland Athletics and the Chicago Cubs to the 2018 dustbin along with the Orioles.  This, despite the Cubs winning 95 games, the second most in the National League, and the A’s winning 97 games, more than any NL team.  Life isn’t fair, and neither is the MLB playoff format.

Now the real fun begins.  There will be four five-game series to (essentially) send teams to the Final Four.  But because it’s baseball, they don’t use exciting lingo, they use “AL division series” or, even worse, “ALDS,” which don’t convey anything meaningful.  The series doesn’t determine a division winner.   Perhaps “AL semi-finals” would be better. At a minimum, it conveys something comprehensible.

The chart shows the playoff teams, their wins (out of 162 games), and their run differential, the number of runs they scored above the number their opponents scored against them.

Team Wins Run Diff.
Red Sox 108 229
Yankees 100 182
Astros 100 263
Brewers 96 95
Dodgers 92 194
Indians 91 170
Rockies 91 35
Braves 90 102

Three of the teams (Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros, all from the American League) are great — many wins (100+) with a huge run differential.  Two of the teams (Dodgers and Indians, the other AL team) are very good — over 90 wins and a huge run differential.  The other three teams are good — 90+ wins and a positive run differential.  Each of these eight teams is good enough to win the World Series.  And each of them could lose to the Orioles if they played one game today.

If baseball were like hockey, which reseeds teams after each round of their playoffs, the Red Sox would play the Indians.  That is, the playoff team with the best record in the AL would play the playoff team with the worst record in the AL.  But baseball deems the Yankees inferior because they did not win their arbitrarily assigned division, even though they won 100 games.  And the Indians are deemed superior because they won a division, never mind that it is the only division with just one team over .500.

Looking at these numbers, the Astros should play the Dodgers again in the World Series.  (The Astros won last year.)  But looking at the numbers, the Cubs, with 95 wins and a run differential of 116 should have defeated the Rockies.  The numbers don’t matter, what matters (generally) is whose starting pitcher is better today.

The game one starters suggest what we already know:  that the best teams are in the AL.  In the Rockies/Brewers game, the 144th best starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela (Rockies) is matched up against Brandon Woodruff (Brewers), who isn’t even ranked because he has only started four games in 2018, none since June.  I’m not expecting a pitcher’s duel.  In the other NL game, Mike Foltynewicz (Brewers), the 25th best starting pitcher, is up against Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers), the 91st ranked starting pitcher.

The average starting pitcher ranking in game one for the NL is 87, ignoring Woodruff’s non-ranking.[1]  Meanwhile, tomorrow in the AL, Justin Verlander (Astros 3rd) is matched against Corey Kluber (Indians 5th) and Chris Sale (Red Sox 2nd) faces off with J.A. Happ (Yankees, a relatively paltry 17th).  The AL game one starters average 7.

A 100-win team will lose in the first round of the playoffs.  Maybe two.  Because all three 100-win teams play in the American League, only one of them can make the World Series.  There is no question that the cream of the crop plays in the AL.  But – for the first time in years, the NL won more inter-league games than it lost.

As you watch games, consider this:  the eight teams remaining averaged 4.95 runs scored per game and 3.98 runs against per game.   It’s not rocket science and it’s not revolutionary, but I predict that five runs will win most games this post season.  Enjoy.

 

 

[1] All of these rankings come from billjamesonline.com, one of the great websites in America.  The rankings are based (roughly) on the last season and a half.

The First Pitch Isn’t That Important

I love baseball.  I love watching it, reading about it, and thinking about it.  I help organize the youth baseball program in Worthington.  We have 12 travel teams, 700 or so boys in a summer program, and roughly 200 boys who play fall ball.  I enjoy riding my bike to the fields and watching the boys play.  They smile much more than major leaguers do.  I love baseball at all levels, but – when I say “baseball,” I usually mean “Major League Baseball” or “MLB.”

Baseball has a statistical record like no other sport.  It dates to 1876.  Every single player who has appeared in a “major league” game is part of that statistical record.  One of the greatest websites of all time is https://www.baseball-reference.com/, which has all of the normal statistics, much information derived from those statistics, and even more information that is tangential, such as biographical and (when available) salary information.[1]

Despite this trove of fascinating information being available to them, my operating assumption when watching or listening to a baseball game is that when the commentators are speaking about statistics, they are almost certainly wrong, unless stating a fact.   For instance, when a commentator says “Billy Ray has a hit in his last nine day games on the road,” the mumbo-jumbo being muttering is almost certain factually correct.  Alas, the fact’s accuracy tends to be directly proportional to its significance.

The other side of my assumption is that when a baseball commentator is saying something significant or strategic, he is probably wrong.  Here is a baseball truism that is spewed in virtually every game I have ever watched:  the first pitch (of an at bat) is extremely important.  I’m sure the commentator’s Little League coach mentioned it back in the sixties or seventies or eighties, but the coach was wrong then and the truism is just as wrong now.

On average, when major league players swing at the first pitch, they bat .342.  That is all-star caliber hitting (leaving aside the fact that batting average isn’t the best way to measure how good a hitter is).  When the count is 1-0, presumably a better situation for the batter, otherwise why talk about the first pitch being important, MLB players bat .337.  That, my friends, is not better than .342.  When the count is 0-1, and the pitcher theoretically has the advantage, MLB players still bat .321.  Slightly worse, but not enough to suggest that the first pitch is especially important.  Moreover, .321 is excellent when, as now, the league average is .248.  (It would have been less impressive in 1930, when the National League batted .303.)

Consider this, only 47 players in the history of baseball (with at least 3000 plate appearances) have a career batting average higher than .321.  There is no compelling reason to consider a first pitch strike to be a difference maker.

In reality, the most important pitch is the 1-1 pitch.  When the next pitch is a ball, and the count goes to 2-1, players bat .327, right in line with other early counts.  But when the third pitch is a strike and the count goes to 1-2, players bat only .164.  That is a massive difference.[2]

Count BA on the next pitch
0-0 .342
0-1 .321
1-0 .337
1-1 .319
1-2 .164
2-1 .327

Joe Lemire, The Myth of the First Pitch Strike (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/debunking-mlb-first-pitch-strike-myth/ )

On the ESPN website in January 2016, Dan Szymborski discussed the issue in relation to OPS.  “OPS” stands for on-base percentage plus slugging percentage.  Even though the math is suspect – because the denominator of on-base percentage is plate appearances and the denominator of slugging percentage is at bats – the derivative statistic is a pretty good proxy for quality.  As we speak (so to speak), the league average OPS is .728, which is a handy comparative tool when you are trying to gauge approximately how good the players on your favorite team are.

Count OPS
1-0 .815
0-1 .609
2-1 .873
1-2 .423

 

Whether the first pitch is a strike or ball leads to an OPS difference of .206 (.815 minus .609).  That is a real difference, but whether the third pitch (after a 1-1 count) is a ball or strike leads to a massive .450 (.873 minus .423) difference in OPS.  The bottom line is that the 1-1 pitch is much more important than the overhyped first pitch.

Steven Wright, the comedian, not the Red Sox pitcher, has many great one-line jokes.  He stated that “42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.”  I’m pretty sure he made up that statistic on the spot and I’m pretty sure that he is essentially right, especially with respect to baseball commentators.[3]  Everything they say should be regarded with a healthy dose of skepticism.  The next time you watch a game, focus on the 1-1 pitch and (basically) ignore the first pitch, it’s not nearly as significant.

[1] Omar Vizquel, who never signed a big money long-term contract, was paid at total of $63,210,668 over the course of his 24-year career.

[2] Please note that this discussion is truncated.  I am only discussing the pitch immediately after the given count, not all of the subsequent possible counts.

[3] I was watching the Yankees and Red Sox play last night.  (Yankees won 3-2.)  The commentators were predictably horrid.  They spent much time discussing the Yankees need to win to prove that they could beat the Red Sox.  Silly.  As well as the Red Sox have played this season, they have lost 47 games, including two recent 8-0 losses to the Mets and White Sox.  It’s baseball, even the best teams lose lots of games.

My favorite exchange occurred during the 7th inning when they were talking about the Yankees having the chance to beat the Red Sox A-team, as if that matters.  But they said it matters and they asserted that the Yankees were playing the Red Sox at their best.  Sure, maybe – if you ignore the facts, which baseball commentators often do.

Mookie Betts, MVP candidate, did not play.  Andrew Benintendi, who is third on the team in hits, runs scored, and runs driven in, did not play.  Nathan Eovaldi, the starting pitcher is eighth on the team in games started.  Eighth!  The commentators singled out Brandon Workman and Ryan Brasier, two relievers who pitched, as being a significant part of the A-team, even though 13 pitchers on the team have pitched more innings for the Red Sox.  Baseball commentators should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Bob Feller — Player / Writer

Two Fellers have played major league baseball.  The most recent was Jack Feller, who caught for an inning in 1958 for the Detroit Tigers.  He had a putout and did not bat.  He is somewhat less well known than his namesake Bob Feller, who is in the Hall of Fame.

Bob Feller led the league in wins six times, in innings pitched five times, and in strikeouts seven times.  Each of those accomplishments was in consecutive years if you don’t consider seasons missed while Feller took time off from baseball to serve in the Navy during WWII.  Feller missed seasons when he was 23-26 years old, prime years for a baseball player.  Even so, he won 266 games and struck out over 2,500 batters.  Only three pitchers since 1900 have won more games while pitching fewer seasons.[1]

Feller threw three no-hitters, only two pitchers have thrown more.[2]  Bob Feller was a fantastic pitcher, who well-deserves his plaque in Cooperstown.  Based on the book Bob Feller’s Little Blue Book of Baseball Wisdom, he was not a fantastic baseball commentator.

The book contains a fair amount of Feller touting his considerable achievements.  I have no problem with that.  My sixth-grade teacher Mr. Gray used to say:  if it’s the truth, it ain’t braggin’.  When Feller writes “I threw 36 complete games in 1946,[3] the most complete games hurled in a single season since 1916,” I yell “fair.”  But when he writes “I know that this ability came from all the farm work I did as a youth,” I scream “foul.”  Many pitchers from Feller’s era grew up on farms; they didn’t throw 36 complete games.  The book is full of similarly simplistic and unsubstantiated conclusions.

When Feller writes about loyalty, he describes a one-way street.  He decries players for not having loyalty because they chase free-agent contracts.  But he never mentions the teams.  They show no more nor less loyalty than the players without attracting the opprobrium that Feller hurls at the players.

Feller believes that regular throwing is an important way, perhaps the only way (other than farm work), to build arm strength.  I happen to agree with him, but along the way, he gratuitously chastises modern pitchers for not throwing batting practice.  On the same topic, Feller offered the following non-sequitur:  “In Japan, a pitcher starts his warm-up 100 feet from the catcher and comes closer.  In the United States, the opposite is true:  pitchers warm up about 10 to 15 feet in front of the mound and then make their way back to regulation distance as the warm-up intensifies.”  Feller, who is not shy at any other time about his opinions, wrote nothing to indicate which approach is better or even whether they are the same.

Much of Feller’s writing is anecdotal.  Not the end of the world really, but not particularly useful in support of broad conclusions.  When talking about the importance of making contact, he referred to Nellie Fox, Johnny Pesky, and Bobby Doerr as “tough outs.”  Perhaps they were — they didn’t strike out a lot.  They were also middle infielders, who (in aggregate) were approximately league average hitters.  That necessarily means that most players were tough outs.

The right field foul pole in Fenway is known as “Pesky’s Pole” because Pesky’s former teammate turned broadcaster Mel Parnell called it that.  It’s not certain that any of the six home runs that Pesky hit at Fenway in his career were aided by the pole.  Nevertheless, Feller wrote that Pesky “was known for his craft of being able to hit drives to right field that, by God, hooked around that little pole for home runs.”  Feller knew about the name of the pole and, apparently, decided to create a myth instead of learning the real story.

Feller described Stan Spence as a “guy who could make you sick to your stomach because he came through in the clutch quite a bit.”  Sure, maybe.  Spence had his best seasons during WWII when Feller and many other good players were in the military.  (Spence served the military as well, but he missed only one season.)  In three of the five seasons that Feller and Spence both played approximately full time, Spence hit .240 or worse.  He may have given Feller indigestion, but the rest of the league seems to have handled him just fine.

Here is a classic Feller conclusion:  “Some call errors ‘lapses in judgment.’  I call it not knowing the fundamentals of the game.”  Huh?  I’m pretty sure neither applies with regularity.  When a third baseman overthrows the first baseman, it has nothing to do with judgment or fundamentals.  His conclusion doesn’t make sense and it isn’t supported by a single example.

Here’s one last gem, this time about Andy Pettitte:  he “has a sensational pickoff move.  He manages to get the runner caught in the open, about 15 paces off first base.  He’s a darn good pitcher and a gamer, competitive and honest to a fault.”  A standard pace is 30 inches.  A lead of 15 paces is 37.5 feet, almost half way between the bases.  I could pick off a guy with a lead like that.  As for “honest to a fault,” there is no example, just a conclusion.  I’m not even sure whether it’s good or bad; “honest” is good, but “to a fault” doesn’t sound good.

This book is a great example of an “expert” believing that because he is an expert, pretty much anything he says about his field of expertise is real and valuable.  It isn’t.  It rarely is.  One of the great things about Bill James, the forefather of modern sports analysis is that he repeatedly admonishes people to believe him because of what he says, not because he is saying it.  He wants people to test his conclusions, not simply to believe them.  Testing Feller’s conclusions leads to a lot of failures.  He was much better at playing the game than at explaining it.  But don’t take my word for it, read the book and see for yourself.

[1]  Christy Mathewson (373), Eddie Plank (326), and Lefty Grove (300).

[2]  Nolan Ryan (7) and Sandy Koufax (4).  Larry Corcoran and Cy Young each threw three no-hitters.

[3]  In the history of MLB, a pitcher has had 43 or more complete games in a season 208 times.  Only three times did it occur after 1900, Jack Chesbro threw 48 in 1903, Vic Willis threw 46 in 1902, and Joe McGinnity threw 43 in 1903.