When you hear somebody say: who would have ever thought this or that, best practice suggests that she is trying to provide cover for something. Somebody has always thought of this or that. It might not be credible, it might not make sense, but somebody has thought of it. Over 500,000 books a year are published in English.[1] Not to mention all the articles, columns, blog posts, etc. published in various venues. And, of course, there are other languages, hundreds of them, in which books and articles are published. Lots of really smart (and some not so smart) people are out there thinking about things all the time. So when you hear a politician in the middle of a pandemic say “who would have ever thought there could be a pandemic,” rest assured that he is attempting to defend himself.
In May 2006, the CDC published National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza.[2] In April 2017, the CDC put out a 16-page brochure about pandemic flu.[3] In the July/August 2018 issue of The Atlantic, Ed Yong wrote an article entitled: The Next Plague is Coming. Is America Ready?, in which he noted that over the past 30 years, on average, “a new infectious has emerged every year.” And perhaps most poignantly, “seven days before Donald Trump took office, his aides faced a major test: the rapid, global spread of a dangerous virus in cities like London and Seoul, one serious enough that some countries were imposing travel bans. In a sober briefing, Trump’s incoming team learned that the disease was an emerging pandemic — a strain of novel influenza known as H9N2 — and that health systems were crashing in Asia, overwhelmed by the demand.”[4] Despite these warnings and a mock disaster for practice, a certain someone[5] has never considered the possibility that a pandemic could happen. You can’t make this stuff up.[6]
Well before these recent events, authors have addressed the perils and opportunities posed by plagues, pandemics, and pestilence. The topic is both fascinating and frightening; interesting enough (to me) to necessitate the creation of a pandemic reading list. Unlike Dave Grohl’s recently published Pandemic Playlist,[7] which is to be listened to during a pandemic, my list comprises books about pandemics. I have read each of these books and you can too, either during the pandemic or after.[8]
First, three general books that touch on the matter at hand:
I recommend all three, each has its charms and an interesting thesis. The essential bottom line is that we are all in this together, that there is an inevitability to the merging and blending of people and the various pathogens that affect them.
If you are looking for something more specific, there are plenty of options.
Sonia Shah looks at pandemics through the years, with cholera as a focus. One comforting takeaway is that even a scourge like cholera, that has killed untold millions, can be tamed. Education about clean water and treatment have essentially eliminated cholera from the developed world, though it still kills tens of thousands every year in the developing world.
This book is awesome, extremely well written, and rather disturbing. It presages our current situation by discussing diseases that spill over from animals to humans. By some measures, over 50% of the infections that afflict us originated with animals. Most of the diseases Quammen discusses are more deadly than covid-19, but, fortunately, not as contagious.
The subtitle of The Hot Zone tells you everything to know: Ebola is terrifying. If that virus ever figures out how to spread easily, we won’t have to worry about overpopulating the planet. The book reads like a Michael Crighton thriller, except it is real. Preston can be a bit sensationalistic, but then the Ebola virus is a sensation. Crisis in the Red Zone is more measured, but not more reassuring. It describes how close the virus came to escaping the backwaters of Africa and spreading into urban centers in 2013.
Finally, we come to the book I have read that focuses on the last great global pandemic, during which as much as 5% of the world’s population died.
This book is already a classic, it described the advent of modern medicine and is written in a crisp engaging style. The book transports the reader to an earlier time; among other things, I learned that I’m glad I didn’t live then. Despite the many things we don’t know about covid-19, we at least have the people, resources, and tools to attempt to make sense of it. Throughout history, most victims of disease and pestilence could only guess.
Currently, there are research teams working on over 100 different vaccines. Many doctors and scientists are attempting to find a cure or a palliative. Public health experts are studying the various approaches taken thus far to determine best practices to stop or slow the spread of the virus. We don’t yet have all the any answers, we may never have all the answers, but we have a chance. Our ancesters never did.
If you want to read only one source mentioned in this post, I recommend Ed Yong’s Atlantic article. He foresaw the dangers to the U.S. of our just-in-time and decentralized medical economy, foreign supply chains, ineffective political leadership, and the defunding of infectious disease health resources. Who could have envisioned a pandemic like covid-19? Lots of people. I hope we listen to those people better next time. Because there will be a next time.
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/books/
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf
[3] https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions/pdf/gr-pan-flu-work-set.pdf
[4] https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
[5] President Trump
[6] A sentiment sadly relevant more than it should be, which is most commonly, and I think rightly, attributed to the great late Don Imus.
[7] https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwHMjrsVBhNrzMMKrtzMkHStjPB
[8] Is it necessary for me to mention that you need not read any of these books or that there are dozens (hundreds) of others that I have not read?
Nice compilation of pandemic information.
Interesting! And yes, all I have to say to Trump’s administration is, “Seriously?!” What a bunch of clowns!
Thanks, Bob. Agreed re Ed Yong. He now has a second piece with the Atlantic that is equally excellent. A superb thinker and science writer. I also have enjoyed listening to him on podcasts. The book is by, Geoff Rice, a friend and colleague here in NZ, and he got a lot of attention at the time of the centenary of the 1918 flu (https://www.canterbury.ac.nz/engage/cup/catalogue/books/black-flu-1918-the-story-of-new-zealands-worst-public-health-disaster.html). You’ll note that the blurb contains the below paragraph, which jibes with your main point. Needless to say he’s been interviewed again a lot in national media. But so far NZ is doing very well through this crisis in terms of health, thanks to outstanding leadership (something I can’t say for the land in which I was born). Whether our economy can recover equally well remains to be seen:
“Could it happen again? The risk of another major influenza pandemic is even greater now, thanks to international jet travel. Global flu surveillance should give us better warning, and we now have anti-viral drugs and antibiotics to deal with the secondary pneumonia that was the real killer in 1918. But do we have the systems in place to deal with another massive health crisis?”
Comprehensive reading list. Insightful conclusion. I cringe every time I hear Trump say “No one could have imagined this.” Obama’s outgoing team did a full day exercise on reacting to a virus pandemic with Trump’s incoming team 3 years ago.