MLB Scheduling and the Wild Card

Major league baseball is in its home stretch.  Each team plays 162 games over six months, and we are down to the last 20 or so games.  The season is long enough and routine enough for players and fans to develop a rhythm, distracted by the occasional day game or double-header and by long trips east or west.

Scheduling used to be simple.  For decades, each team played the other seven teams in its league 22 times for a total of 154 games.  The winner of the National League (first game played in 1876) played the winner of the American League (first game played in 1901) in the World Series (first played in 1903).  Because every team in a league played the same schedule, no team (or its fans) could argue that it played a tougher schedule than some other team.

That changed in 1969, when the leagues divided into divisions, started playing unbalanced schedules, and created a playoff format.  (Previously, playoff games were played only when two or more teams in a league were tied at the end of the regular season.)  It changed more when inter-league games were incorporated into the schedule.

Teams now play the other four teams in their division 19 times each season, a total of 76 division games, 46.9% of their schedule.  The other major sports in the U.S. play significantly fewer division games — in the NFL, 6/16 (37.5%); in the NHL, 30/82 (36.6%); in the NBA, 16/82 (19.5%).  An unbalanced schedule is a great way to determine which team is the best in a division.  It is a terrible way to determine which teams should qualify for a wild card berth in the playoffs because it is inherently inequitable.

The teams in each division of baseball play the same schedule, therefore the fact that they play each other disproportionately does not influence which of them wins the division.  But the wild card berths are based on overall record without considering strength of schedule.  This approach benefits teams that play more games against weaker competition.

The following chart helps illustrate the issue:

These numbers, through games played on September 10, 2016, are even worse than they appear on first glance.  Each division, by definition, plays .500 against teams in that division.  That means that the numbers above are based solely on games against teams from other divisions and have, therefore, been compiled in only half the games played (because roughly half of games are played within a division).  The American League East is 33 games over .500 against teams outside the American League East.  The National League West is 25 games under .500.  (This discrepancy is exacerbated by the fact that in inter-league games this season the AL East teams played NL West teams.)

This disparity can have significant wild card implications.  The San Francisco Giants are the first wild card team in the NL, a game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals.  The New York Mets are only half a game behind the Cardinals.  The Cards are handicapped (compared to the Giants and Mets) by playing half their games against the best division the NL – because the Giants and Mets have played half of their games in the two worst divisions in the majors.  Although each win is worth the same, the competition is markedly different.  It isn’t fair, in this case, to the Cardinals, who are battling two teams with decidedly easier schedules.  The same applies in the AL, where the Detroit Tigers benefit from playing in the weak Central division, while most of their wild card competition beats up on itself in the East, easily the best division in baseball.

In the old days (sometimes called “the good old days”) the team with the most wins in a league made the World Series.  And they deserved to, having compiled the best record against the same teams that every other team played.  Now because there are levels of playoffs, the best team (however we might determine that) does not always make the World Series.  Moreover, given the huge differences in strength of schedule, it’s not certain that the best teams even make the playoffs.