If you are a sports fan and you pay attention to baseball, you are no doubt aware of how highly the media regard the 2016 Cubs. They are number one in the MLB Network’s power rankings. They are number one in the ESPN power rankings. Basically every baseball analyst considers them the best team in baseball. And it’s a fun uplifting story because the Cubs haven’t won a World Series since 1908.
Maybe they are the best team. They have given up the fewest runs of any team, only 3.4 per game compared to a league average of 4.5 runs per game. They have scored the third most runs, 5.0 per game – only the Red Sox and the Rockies have scored more. Their run differential is massive, on average they score 1.6 more per game than their opponent. That’s over half a run better than the second best team, the Red Sox. The Cubs are the only team in the majors (so far) to win 90 games. They are a whopping 40 games over .500.
I can’t help saying – but * * *.
The Cubs record includes 64 wins against teams under .500. That’s 64 wins, not games played. The Cubs have more wins against sub-.500 teams, than the three teams leading divisions in the AL have played against them. The Cubs have played 92 games against sub-.500 teams, Texas has played 55, Boston 56, and Cleveland 62.
The Cubs winning percentage against good teams (defined, by me, as teams over .500) is .529; against bad teams, their winning percentage is .696. That does not indicate to me that they are the juggernaut the national press has made them out to be.
As if feeding my frenzy, CSNChicago recently reported “The Cubs responded to their worst month (12-14 in July) with their best month (22-6 in August) * * *.” http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/cubs-will-keep-their-foot-gas-pedal-chance-clinch-st-louis These records are accurate, though it is doubtful that the Cubs play in August was in “response” to their play in July. It was in response to their competition.
As Don Imus used to say, “you can’t make this stuff up.” In July, when the Cubs didn’t play well, going 12-14, they played 12 games against good teams and 14 against bad teams. Hmmn. Notice a relationship? In August, when they played well, going 22-6, the Cubs played 7 games against good teams and 21 against bad teams. I think we’re on to something – the Cubs are really good when they play bad teams, not so good when they play good teams. Don’t expect anybody touting the Cubs to mention this.
I’m not saying the Cubs aren’t good. They are. But they aren’t as good as they appear, and they aren’t nearly as good when playing good teams as they are when playing bad teams.
In the playoffs, they won’t be playing teams with sub-.500 records. They better bring their “A” game. Their “B” game might be good enough to beat the Phillies and Reds. It is unlikely to do so well against the Dodgers, Mets, and whichever team prevails in the American League.
Sorry Bob but I think you’re way off base here. You sound like a college football fan, nitpicking schedule to try to decipher a team’s competitiveness. In our beautiful game of baseball, this isn’t needed. Over the course of the season, schedules are very comparable. The total win pct of opponents ranges from .490 to .510 for all baseball teams, it isn’t even worth discussing, especially this late in the season.
Arbitrarily choosing .500 as the mark and treating above the line and below the same is silly. To illustrate this, if you took the Pirates record against the Cubs off the books, they would be a 66-61 team. If you consider the Pirates a winning team, their win pct against winning teams would turn to .600. No team other than the Cubs have a win pct of .600 in all of baseball period, let alone against winning teams.
The Cubs have a winning record against every one of their opponents except the Rockies (a sub .500 team) and the Mets. That’s pretty remarkable. Even more remarkable about the Cubs is the statisticians agree they have actually been UNLUCKY. FanGraphs runs an “expected W/L” based on the underlying stats of a team, and by that measure they should actually be 98-45. They have a losing record in 1 run games and have an enormous 37-11 record in games decided by 5 or more.
They could easily lay an egg in the postseason, but it won’t be because they weren’t the best team in the regular season. They clearly are.
Cubs fan by any chance? It get it — .500 is arbitrary, but it’s easy to pull from baseballreference.com, which is a wonderful resource. The Cubs have played almost 40 more games against sub-.500 teams than the Rangers. They have two brutally bad teams in their division — and that’s not just because the Cubs beat up on them, they are bad. They haven’t been great against good teams. But I never said they weren’t the best team in baseball. They might be. I’m just not as enamored of their gaudy record as you are. As for schedule strength, I’m sure the Rays would love to switch schedules with them, they have played a total of 37 games against teams under .500, that’s only 52 fewer than the Cubs have played. That ain’t everything, but it ain’t nothing either.