The modern era of Major League Baseball began in 1901 when Ban Johnson morphed the minor Western League into the major American League. He did this by declaring that the newly-named American League would be a major league. Then the owners of the teams in the American League paid major league salaries and raided dozens of players from the National League. In 1903, the National League surrendered, and agreed that, if the American League would quit signing its players, it would recognize the American League as a major league. That two-league system remains to this day, despite some interesting forays by other putative major leagues: the Federal League in 1914-1915 and the Continental League in 1959-1960.
Since that beginning, certain aspects of baseball have been remarkably stable.[1] The average age of all batters was 28.1 in 1920, 28.3 in 1950, 28.2 in 1980, and it is 28.3 this year.
Here’s another graph based on league average batting average. Other than a live ball era peak in 1930, which was a year of epic offense, comparable to the so-called Steroid Era (the 1990s give or take a few years on either side of the decade), batting average is quite stable, around .260.
And, the last graph highlighting stability shows the average runs scored by each team per game. Other than that bump in 1930, runs scored are quite stable at around 4.5 runs per team.
Other aspects of baseball have changed dramatically. Strikeouts per game have risen sharply, from 3.87 strikeouts per game in 1910 to 8.25 this year.
Complete games per game have dropped even faster than strikeouts have risen as teams limit the innings their starting pitchers throw, hoping that helps them stay healthy. In the early days of modern baseball, starters completed over 60% of the games they started; now they complete under 3%. That is a massive change.
Finally we come to home runs, which are being hit at an unprecedented rate.
This year, players hit more home runs than they hit during the steroid years. Players of that era were pilloried for ruining the game by using steroids. They were accused of desecrating the game (essentially) for exceeding certain magic numbers – 60 home runs in a season for instance. Babe Ruth hit 60 in 1927 and Roger Maris hit 61 in 1961. Nobody else hit 60 home runs in the first 98 years of modern baseball. But in the next four years, three different players eclipsed 60 home runs: Sammy Sosa did it three times, Mark McGwire twice, and worst of all Barry Bonds, when he hit the most ever, 73 in 2001. Many baseball fans have never forgiven them.
I have no doubt that each of those recent 60+ home run years was aided and abetted by PEDs (performance enhancing drugs). I am equally certain that neither I nor anyone else can quantify how much PEDs helped. It just isn’t possible. I fervently wish that the excesses of the Steroid Era had not occurred. But the players did little more than what players have done for decades: push the envelope in an effort to help their teams win games and earn massive contracts for themselves. Think corked bats,[2] improperly stolen signs,[3] spit balls,[4] and amphetamines, among other rules violations.
People tend to scoff at suggestions that amphetamines were as helpful as steroids and other modern PEDs. But the players didn’t. They used them regularly, often every day. It helped them sustain their energy through a 162-game season. Yet, none of the players of the 1960s and 1970s have taken the hits that the Steroid Era players have taken. We should not glorify the players for cheating, but neither should we vilify them.
The bottom line is that many factors affect the total number of home runs that are hit, whether during the Steroid Era, when record numbers of home runs were hit, or now when even more home runs are being hit.
Among the factors that might influence how many home runs are hit are:
- Hotter summers – players hit better when it is hot,
- Smaller ballparks and shorter fences,
- Better scouting – though that would also help the pitchers,
- Faster pitches, but less command of the strike zone,[5]
- Changes in the ball – they could have more hop or lower seams and, therefore, less movement,[6]
- Greater willingness to swing for the fences,[7]
- Greater willingness to accept more strikeouts (related to 6 above), and
- Changes in the strike zone, smaller and higher.
There are no doubt other factors that I haven’t mentioned. The most important might be that players are continuing to use PEDs. Perhaps they are using them in lower dosages to avoid suspicion, perhaps they are just better at avoiding detection. Few people are talking about PEDs even though home runs are being hit at an historic rate. That might be because no individual player is setting records. [8] Apparently, when players set a collective record, it doesn’t offend sensibilities.
“The more things change, the more they stay the same” is wonderfully trite and even true in certain situations. But in baseball, many things remain stable even as others change dramatically. It’s one of the reasons baseball fans remain in the sport’s thrall. And now we get to watch the playoffs. Happy days.
[1] I like these graphs much better than charts full of numbers. But Word Press can’t handle graphs unless I engage is some pretty serious software manipulation, which I’m not capable of. Instead, I took a picture of each graph, emailed it to myself, and uploaded the graph as a picture. This work around is inelegant, but effective. If any of your know a better way to achieve the same result, I’m all ears.
The data points are the years on the X-axis, 1910, 1920, etc. The lines between the data points are straight. That way I could enter 12 data points, not over a hundred for each graph.
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corked_bat
[3] It is likely that one of the most famous home runs in the history of baseball was hit with the help of signs stolen by the use of a telescope. http://www.booksonbaseball.com/2010/08/did-the-ny-giants-steal-the-signs-for-bobby-thomsons-1951-homer/
[4] One great pitcher, Gaylord Perry, was well-known to throw illegal spit balls. It didn’t keep him out of the Hall of Fame. http://www.captainsblog.info/2013/01/10/the-gaylord-perry-problem-hall-of-fame-already-has-a-cheater-in-its-midst/18860/
[5] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/12/sports/baseball/home-run-trend-derby-all-star-break.html?mcubz=0
[6] http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/06/29/a-second-study-confirms-that-home-runs-are-up-due-to-a-change-in-the-baseball/
[7] http://www.chicagonow.com/312-sports/2017/05/why-are-there-so-many-home-runs-in-major-league-baseball-today/
[8] With three games left in the season, Giancarlo Stanton has 59 home runs.