Among the reasons baseball is so great is that something unusual happens regularly, it has a robust, extensively documented history, and, despite significant changes,[1] the sport remains essentially the same as it was in 1903. But this post isn’t about the big picture, it’s (mostly) about one game.
Let’s start though with an old baseball chestnut: good pitching beats good hitting. It might even be true, certainly many people think it is. With an added caveat, it is irrefutably true: good pitching beats good hitting, except when it doesn’t.
This year in the AL, teams averaged 4.71 runs per team per game. That includes both the good teams (the ones with better pitching) and the bad teams (the ones with worse pitching). In the 10 games of the playoffs thus far, team have scored 93 runs in 10 games, or 4.65 runs per team per game. It’s only 10 games, but the pitchers from the best teams have been giving up the same number of runs as the pitchers from all of the teams. That is not good pitching beating good hitting. In five of the 10 games, the winning team scored eight or more runs and one losing team scored eight runs. That is not good pitching beating good hitting.
This year in the NL, teams averaged 4.58 runs per game. It’s not surprising that NL teams score fewer runs than AL teams because pitchers bat in the NL. Pitchers are not good hitters, exceptions to the contrary notwithstanding. In the playoffs so far, NL teams have scored 93 runs in nine games, that’s 5.16 runs per team per game. So with the best pitchers from the best teams pitching, the batters have been scoring more runs per game. In the nine games, the winning team has scored eight or more runs four times and the losing teams scored eight runs twice. Again, it’s only 10 games (so it disproves nothing), but it certainly doesn’t support the notion that good pitching beats good hitting.
Never look to truisms for truth.
Now let’s look at a few of the notable events from last night’s game, in which the Chicago Cubs defeated the Washington Nationals in a decisive game 5 in the NLDS to advance to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.
In the first inning and the score 0-0, Jon Jay of the Cubs was on third base with one out. Anthony Rizzo hit a ground ball to second and was thrown out at first base while Jay scored. Rizzo was credited with a run batted in and charged with an at bat. With the infield playing back, it’s possible that Rizzo intentionally tried to hit a ground ball, knowing it would generate a run. It’s possible, but unlikely, and it certainly isn’t reliably verifiable.
In the eighth inning, with his team trailing by two runs and the based loaded with one out, Bryce Harper flied out to center field. Michael Taylor, the runner on third base tagged up and scored. Harper was credited with a run batted in but was not charged with an at bat. In this game situation, it is inconceivable that Harper was willing, let alone attempting, to trade an out for a run. Yet according to the rules, he is considered to have sacrificed himself, just as if he had squared up and bunted. It’s an absurd vestigial scoring rule.
Neither or both of these situations should be considered sacrifices. I would prefer neither because I believe batters are (almost) always trying to get hits, unless they sacrifice bunt.
Catcher Matt Wieters had a rough game, despite going 2-4 at the plate. He was called for catcher’s interference, which occurs when the batter while attempting to hit a pitch makes contact with the catcher, usually with the catcher’s outstretched hand or mitt. In the last ten years, catcher’s interference has been called as few as 17 times in a season and as many at 28 times. If we err on the high side (28 times per year) that means catcher’s interference occurs once every 173 games. It’s a rare thing and is rightly considered an error.
Wieters also had a throwing error. A team’s catchers averaged 94 errors this past season in 162 games, which is .58 per game. With two errors in one game, Wieters more than tripled that rate. There’s more — he also mishandled a strikeout, though that shouldn’t have mattered.
With two outs in the 5th inning, Javier Baez swung and missed on strike three. Weiters didn’t catch the low pitch, though it hit his glove in the air. A caught strikeout would have ended the inning with the Cubs ahead 6-4. Instead, a run scored to make it 7-4. But it shouldn’t have counted because Baez hit Weiters in the head with his bat while following through with his swing.
Just as catchers can’t interfere with batters while they are attempting to hit, batters can’t interfere with catchers. Baez should have been called out for hitting the catcher. All six umpires missed it. For some reason, hitting the catcher with your bat is not reviewable and the umpires couldn’t correct their obvious mistake. In a one-run loss, that run was pretty important.
Of Wieters’s three misplays, two occurred on a play that should have been negated. His throwing error occurred after he retrieved the passed ball on Baez’s swinging strikeout, when Baez should have been called out for interfering with Wieters. So it’s really on the umpires or rather the system that doesn’t let them correct all of their obvious errors. I’d like to blame that on Bud Selig,[2] but even to me, that doesn’t seem fair.
Baseball is a weird game. All of this strangeness in one game – and I barely scratched the surface, discussing only four plays.[3] Still, that’s probably more than enough for some of you. Those of you who want more will get a chance very soon.
[1] See recent post https://www.notesfromnokomis.com/?p=754
[2] See https://www.notesfromnokomis.com/?p=767 for a bit more blame assigned to Selig.
[3] If I had to pick one more play to discuss, it would be a non-play. In the 8th inning with no runners on base, Wade Davis threw a pitch that missed his target so badly that catcher Willson Contreras whiffed when attempting to catch it. The fastball hit the umpire square in the mask and staggered him. The umpire retaliated by softly punching Contreras in the jaw.