The Cleveland Browns have been a train wreck for years. In the 19 years since they rejoined the NFL in 1999, the Browns have not finished in last place in their division four times. In the last ten years, they have finished last in a four-team division nine times. Their high point was 2010, when they finished 3rd in a four-team division.
Despite the surfeit of quality draft picks their on-field incompetence has garnered, they haven’t been getting better – they have somehow been getting worse. They won one game in the last two years. Prior to those two years, their lowest win total in any given two-year period was five, in the first two years of their rebirth.
The Browns have squandered many high draft picks, it’s among the things they are best at. It takes time to determine whether a draft pick is going to be a quality player. Let’s review some of the recent picks, the top two picks each year, with round selected in parenthesis:
2010 Joe Haden (1), T.J. Ward (2)
2011 Phil Taylor (1), Jabaal Sheard (2)
2012 Trent Richardson (1), Brandon Weeden (1)
2013 Barkevious Mingo (1), Leon McFadden (3)
2014 Justin Gilbert (1), Johnny Manziel (1)
2015 Danny Shelton (1), Cameron Erving (1)
It’s pretty easy to reach of couple of conclusions. This list is not full of household names. And these players have not been in many Pro Bowls. Here’s the same list with games played, possible games played, Pro Bowls, and possible Pro Bowls.
2010 J. Haden 101/128, 2/8; T.J. Ward 107/128, 3/8
2011 P. Taylor 44/112, 0/7; J. Sheard 105/112, 0/7
2012 T. Richardson 46/96, 0/6; B. Weeden 34/96, 0/6
2013 B. Mingo 78/80, 0/5; L. McFadden 34/80, 0/5
2014 J. Gilbert 35/64, 0/4; J. Manziel 15/64, 0/4
2015 D. Shelton 46/48, 0/3; C. Erving 42/48, 0/3
In aggregate, the top two draft picks for the Browns have played in 65% of the games played since they were drafted. The same players have played in five of a possible 66 Pro Bowls. Most of the players are either out of the league or off the Browns. Three of the players (B. Mingo, J. Sheard, and T.J. Ward) were lucky enough to get traded to teams which subsequently won a Super Bowl. I have unofficially set the over/under on when the Brown will win a Super Bowl at 2050.
Most of the good in these numbers dates to 2010. The person (whether GM or some other title) responsible for those selections was fired three or four GMs ago. Whoever drafted D. Shelton and C. Erving, the second best draft year, has been fired. And the guy who replaced him has also been fired.
There has been only one constant in the generation of putridity: owner Jimmy Haslam. He is the genius who decided that current coach Hue Jackson, whose record with the Browns is 1-31, is just the guy to turn things around. And he might. It literally can’t get worse than last year’s 0-16.
Which brings us to tomorrow’s draft. The Browns have picks 1 and 4 in the draft. Even though another new person is in charge of the draft for the Browns, there is little reason to think he will fare any better than the last four or five GMs.
There is always hope, but I expect the Browns to once again chase a fairy tale quarterback. Some commentators have suggested that they might use both first round picks on a QB. Sadly, I can’t rule it out. It underscores their belief that they can’t win without a franchise QB. As if they were one great QB away from something significant.
From 1990-2014, 60 QBs were drafted in the first round. Some of them have been outstanding Hall of Fame caliber players: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger are probably the three best. They were drafted 1st, 24th, and 11th respectively. The best three quarterbacks in that time period drafted outside the first round are Tom Brady, 6th round, Bret Favre, 2nd round, and Drew Brees, 2nd round. They are all terrific, but I might slightly prefer the guys drafted outside the first round.
And here’s the real problem: the QBs drafted in the first round included many phenomenal duds. Ryan Leaf, drafted 2nd in 1998, lasted 25 games. Akili Smith, drafted 3rd overall in 1999, lasted 22 games. Injuries didn’t end their careers, awful passing did. JaMarcus Russell, drafted 1st in 2007, lasted 31 games. David Carr in 1994 and Tim Couch in 1999 (by the Browns) were drafted number one overall. They weren’t horrible, but they weren’t good either. Jeff George, Sam Bradford, and Drew Bledsoe were drafted #1, no Hall of Famers there.
Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, and Michael Vick were all drafted #1. They have all been good, at times great, but it was never enough to lift their team to a Super Bowl victory. The only QBs drafted first overall since 1990 to win a Super Bowl are the Manning brothers, Peyton and Eli.
It should be clear that drafting a QB with the first pick is no panacea. One group of football commentators concluded that only about 30% of QBs drafted in the first round become franchise quarterbacks. http://www.footballperspective.com/what-should-be-the-expectations-for-a-first-round-qb/ The percentage is higher for top five picks, but the list of duds is still pretty impressive. I would guess that half of the top four QBs in this draft will be duds – I just don’t know which two (of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Allen). And I’m pretty sure the Browns don’t either.
Using ten different websites,[1] I plugged the best players into a spreadsheet. Only four players appeared in the top ten on all ten lists – none of the QBs. None of the QBs managed to be in the top 20 on every list. Sam Darnold was the highest ranked QB, averaging 5.1 on nine lists; Josh Rosen averaged 5.9 on nine lists, Baker Mayfield averaged 10.9 on nine lists; Josh Allen averaged 8 on six lists, meaning he was outside the top 20 on four lists.
The highest ranked players are Saquon Barkley (RB) 2.2, Quenton Nelson (G) 3.4, Bradley Chubb (DE) 4.0, and Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) 4.6. These players could all be game changers and have low bust potential.
I suspect the Browns will select a QB. The shame of that is that they already have a good quarterback. Tyrod Taylor will not be the weak link on the Browns. The Browns have had decent QBs before, but never surrounded them with the best possible team because of their endless quest for a better quarterback. End the quest.
The goal should be the best possible team, not the best possible quarterback. I believe the Browns should draft two of the best four players and take a QB later, when the consequences of a bust are less dramatic. But they won’t. Even so, I think they will win more games than they won last year. At worst, they won’t win fewer.
Good luck Browns fans.
[1] drafttek.com, jenkins at nfl.com, mayock at nfl.com, si.com, bleacherreport.com, usatoday.com, philly.com, bleedinggreennation.com, sbnation.com, and miller at bleacherreport.com