I love baseball. I love watching it, reading about it, and thinking about it. I help organize the youth baseball program in Worthington. We have 12 travel teams, 700 or so boys in a summer program, and roughly 200 boys who play fall ball. I enjoy riding my bike to the fields and watching the boys play. They smile much more than major leaguers do. I love baseball at all levels, but – when I say “baseball,” I usually mean “Major League Baseball” or “MLB.”
Baseball has a statistical record like no other sport. It dates to 1876. Every single player who has appeared in a “major league” game is part of that statistical record. One of the greatest websites of all time is https://www.baseball-reference.com/, which has all of the normal statistics, much information derived from those statistics, and even more information that is tangential, such as biographical and (when available) salary information.[1]
Despite this trove of fascinating information being available to them, my operating assumption when watching or listening to a baseball game is that when the commentators are speaking about statistics, they are almost certainly wrong, unless stating a fact. For instance, when a commentator says “Billy Ray has a hit in his last nine day games on the road,” the mumbo-jumbo being muttering is almost certain factually correct. Alas, the fact’s accuracy tends to be directly proportional to its significance.
The other side of my assumption is that when a baseball commentator is saying something significant or strategic, he is probably wrong. Here is a baseball truism that is spewed in virtually every game I have ever watched: the first pitch (of an at bat) is extremely important. I’m sure the commentator’s Little League coach mentioned it back in the sixties or seventies or eighties, but the coach was wrong then and the truism is just as wrong now.
On average, when major league players swing at the first pitch, they bat .342. That is all-star caliber hitting (leaving aside the fact that batting average isn’t the best way to measure how good a hitter is). When the count is 1-0, presumably a better situation for the batter, otherwise why talk about the first pitch being important, MLB players bat .337. That, my friends, is not better than .342. When the count is 0-1, and the pitcher theoretically has the advantage, MLB players still bat .321. Slightly worse, but not enough to suggest that the first pitch is especially important. Moreover, .321 is excellent when, as now, the league average is .248. (It would have been less impressive in 1930, when the National League batted .303.)
Consider this, only 47 players in the history of baseball (with at least 3000 plate appearances) have a career batting average higher than .321. There is no compelling reason to consider a first pitch strike to be a difference maker.
In reality, the most important pitch is the 1-1 pitch. When the next pitch is a ball, and the count goes to 2-1, players bat .327, right in line with other early counts. But when the third pitch is a strike and the count goes to 1-2, players bat only .164. That is a massive difference.[2]
| Count | BA on the next pitch |
| 0-0 | .342 |
| 0-1 | .321 |
| 1-0 | .337 |
| 1-1 | .319 |
| 1-2 | .164 |
| 2-1 | .327 |
Joe Lemire, The Myth of the First Pitch Strike (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/debunking-mlb-first-pitch-strike-myth/ )
On the ESPN website in January 2016, Dan Szymborski discussed the issue in relation to OPS. “OPS” stands for on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. Even though the math is suspect – because the denominator of on-base percentage is plate appearances and the denominator of slugging percentage is at bats – the derivative statistic is a pretty good proxy for quality. As we speak (so to speak), the league average OPS is .728, which is a handy comparative tool when you are trying to gauge approximately how good the players on your favorite team are.
| Count | OPS |
| 1-0 | .815 |
| 0-1 | .609 |
| 2-1 | .873 |
| 1-2 | .423 |
Whether the first pitch is a strike or ball leads to an OPS difference of .206 (.815 minus .609). That is a real difference, but whether the third pitch (after a 1-1 count) is a ball or strike leads to a massive .450 (.873 minus .423) difference in OPS. The bottom line is that the 1-1 pitch is much more important than the overhyped first pitch.
Steven Wright, the comedian, not the Red Sox pitcher, has many great one-line jokes. He stated that “42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.” I’m pretty sure he made up that statistic on the spot and I’m pretty sure that he is essentially right, especially with respect to baseball commentators.[3] Everything they say should be regarded with a healthy dose of skepticism. The next time you watch a game, focus on the 1-1 pitch and (basically) ignore the first pitch, it’s not nearly as significant.
[1] Omar Vizquel, who never signed a big money long-term contract, was paid at total of $63,210,668 over the course of his 24-year career.
[2] Please note that this discussion is truncated. I am only discussing the pitch immediately after the given count, not all of the subsequent possible counts.
[3] I was watching the Yankees and Red Sox play last night. (Yankees won 3-2.) The commentators were predictably horrid. They spent much time discussing the Yankees need to win to prove that they could beat the Red Sox. Silly. As well as the Red Sox have played this season, they have lost 47 games, including two recent 8-0 losses to the Mets and White Sox. It’s baseball, even the best teams lose lots of games.
My favorite exchange occurred during the 7th inning when they were talking about the Yankees having the chance to beat the Red Sox A-team, as if that matters. But they said it matters and they asserted that the Yankees were playing the Red Sox at their best. Sure, maybe – if you ignore the facts, which baseball commentators often do.
Mookie Betts, MVP candidate, did not play. Andrew Benintendi, who is third on the team in hits, runs scored, and runs driven in, did not play. Nathan Eovaldi, the starting pitcher is eighth on the team in games started. Eighth! The commentators singled out Brandon Workman and Ryan Brasier, two relievers who pitched, as being a significant part of the A-team, even though 13 pitchers on the team have pitched more innings for the Red Sox. Baseball commentators should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Interesting. Certainly makes sense to look for certain pitch in hitting zone and be ready to swing.
At some point is there some value in driving up pitch count and getting quality starter out of game earlier? Also, does seeing more pitches in one AB help get feel for pitcher in later ABs?
Swinging at hitter’s pitches is the way to go. And those are easier to find early in the count. Once a batter has two strikes, his percentages go way down in large part because the pitchers don’t need to hit the strike zone.
Driving up pitch counts is not as in vogue as it was a few years ago. The current belief is that chasing starters is of limited value because so many bullpens are full of flamethrowers.
As for more pitches being seen helping the batter: some people believe it, others don’t. It’s hard to study because of the concurrent issue of pitcher fatigue. Which came first: the tired pitcher or the smarter batter?
There are all kinds of opportunities for statistical distortions to creep into numbers such as these. Bob stresses one of them: the conditioning on the next pitch. Another would be the conditioning on swinging at the index pitch (“…when major league players swing at the first pitch…”).
Which is a big part of why baseball statistics are so much fun to those of us who enjoy them.
This stuff can get very nuanced. Next time I see my pal Larry Kupper, I’ll ask him about it. He has several big advantages over me. He’s a statistician. He was the starting shortstop and leadoff hitter for the Maryland Terrapins his junior and senior years. He’s a low handicapper who figured out how the USGA and Royal and Ancient handicap systems are unfair to low handicappers. And his biggest advantage of all: He’s retired.
That’s crazy talk Charlie. Everybody knows the system discriminates against high handicaps—like mine.
Hi Charlie. Another thing to add to the first pitch discussion: it seems that major league hitting coaches and managers like Alex Cora are now stressing first pitch swinging. First, they want to take advantage of pitchers’ recent assumptions that hitters are trying to drive up pitch counts. Then as the season goes along and pitchers catch on, those pitchers will be more careful on pitch one, helping batters get ahead in the count. I have thought (with no attempt to find data) that it makes sense for a batter to take a strike on each at bat except one in any game. In other words, not to swing until there is a one strike count. Pitchers may be convinced you will take pitch one, and you can be aggressive once a game.
The key to hitting is getting a good pitch to hit. Historically pitchers threw those to get ahead, as batters watched those good pitches go by. So — batters have adjusted and pitchers will too.